The Inflation Myth and the Wonderful World of Deflation. Mark Mobius

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      For a while, and during Marco Polo's visit, the system worked. But as the Mongolian Empire expanded, the monetary rules were not always followed through – gold and silver coins ended up being used in some places again. As with previous dynasties, the printing of additional notes to fund military activity was a harbinger of the end of the regime. The Yuan Dynasty's successor, the Ming Dynasty, began its reign in 1368 and would rule China for the next 277 years until the mid‐seventeenth century. To begin with, the new regime under Emperor Chu Yuan‐chang returned the money supply to coinage: in 1361, prior to his rise to Emperor, he ordered the making of a new mint of copper coins. Coins then became the sole currency until 1375, when lack of sufficient copper supplies saw a return to paper currency. However, the circulation of coins continued until the end of the century, and it was only via the third Ming emperor, Yung‐lo, that coins were successfully removed from circulation – a decision, perhaps unsurprisingly given previous Chinese rulers, that was the result of the need to fund military campaigns.

Both under Chu Yuan‐chang and Yung‐lo, the use of paper currency was marked by a sustained rise in prices. As described in Hyperinflation: A World History by He Liping, rice prices rose 6.6% annually for this 50‐year period and under Yung‐lo's rule, when paper currency was in sole use, it rose 11% annually. As well as rice, there were also large rises in the price of gold, silver, copper, and grain. The result was that by 1435, the paper currency was dropped altogether. Copper coins were minted again, as they would be for the remainder of the Ming Dynasty: silver, too, grew in circulation, with the government allowing people to pay their land tax in silver. Trade with the rest of the world also grew and this, too, was paid in silver.

      Not only did the Ming Dynasty not return to paper currency, its successor – the Qing Dynasty – also eschewed the paper system for almost all of its 200‐plus years rule. The two exceptions to this were between 1651 and 1661, and between 1853 and 1861, both to fund military activity. In the latter case, Emperor Hsien‐Feng attempted to overcome previous problems by setting up a system of Coin Houses. The idea was that people with paper currency could exchange them for silver notes, which in turn could be exchanged for silver or copper coins. This convertibility, in theory, should have set the value of the notes and enforced people's faith in them. In practice, the Coin Houses didn't offer the full value of coins or silver notes but demanded substantial discounts in order to exchange them.

Today, the Ming banknote is a historical artifact, with an example on display at the British Museum, which was featured in the BBC series A History of the World in 100 Objects. The British Museum note is worth 1,000 coins, with the design showing a drawing of the number of coins it represents. In practical terms, it was clearly a great step forward: this one note was the equivalent of 3 kilograms or 1.5 meters of copper coins (Chinese coins at the time had a hole in the center so they could be collected onto a piece of string – a long piece of string in this case!). That was the theory, anyway. Fifteen years after the launch of the paper currency, this 1,000‐cash note was worth just 250 coins. And while a note from the time of the currency claimed, “Whenever paper money is presented, copper coins will be paid out, and whenever paper money is issued, copper coins will be paid in,” the governmental urge to print more money rendered it unworkable. While the note bears the legend “to circulate forever” it is today instead a historic reminder of another system that went wrong.

Money and Trust

Interviewed for a BBC series, the former Governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, said: “Money was invented in order to get around the problems of trusting other individuals. But then the question is, could you trust the person who issued the money?” Pressed on whether paper currency was always a flawed system by nature, King was curiously circumspect: “If you'd asked me four, five years ago, before the financial crisis, I would have said no. I think we've now worked out how to manage paper money.” Perhaps in the light of the financial crisis, we should be a bit more cautious, and maybe, to quote Zhou Enlai, another great Chinese figure who when asked about the impact of the French Revolution supposedly said: “, it's too soon to tell.”

      Maybe we should say about paper money, after 700 years, that it is perhaps too soon to tell. The point about paper money and inflation is, in fact, a wider one: namely that, over time, no currency keeps its value. This is a fact reinforced by the inability of governments of all stripes to resist the temptation to expand the money supply when the need (or in some cases, the greed) arises. I've used China as an example here because paper money was developed there first, but the same situation can be seen in any economy.

      For many years Franz Pick, an Austrian School economist, studied currencies around the world. I remember receiving his annual currency yearbook which had information regarding all the world's currencies. He continued to study currencies all his life. He was the one who said: “No currency holds its value” and was a believer in gold as the best foundation for currency since his experience and studies showed that without a specific commodity base, such as gold, governments would always devalue their currencies.

The Urge to Debase

      Governments’ urge to increase the money supply predates the invention of paper money. The idea of coinage is sometimes dated back to the eighth century BC, and their use in Lydia in Asia Minor (modern Turkey). Here, a combination of abundant gold and developments in metallurgy combined to create a system of standardized gold coins. Over the following centuries, the practicalities of using coins in comparison to bullion saw its use spread. But as coinage came into common usage, it wasn't long before governments sought different ways of manipulating the currency for their own gain. Rather than the purity of the earliest gold and silver coins, governments would order the reduction of the value of precious metals, debasing them with other metals or reducing their weight.

      In the fourth century BC, Dionysius, the tyrant of Syracuse, who ruled a Greek colony on Sicily, had the brainwave of dealing with rising debts by changing the face of all the local Drachmae. Ordering all coins to be handed in, he restamped each single Drachmae to be worth two (and thus halved his debt at a stroke). He then went on to issue a further set of tin coins, insisting these were valued the same as the silver Drachmae.

Dionysius’ actions are the earliest, or at least one of the earliest, examples of a ruler increasing the money supply for their own ends. Back in China, Wang Mang's short reign as the thirteenth Emperor of the Western Han Dynasty (or the founder of the Xin Dynasty, depending on which historical view you take) was dominated by his economic reforms.

      Wang Mang became Emperor in AD 9, but had been acting Emperor for two years before this – the emperor proper, Emperor Ping, was a young child. Wang Mang took advantage to take over as emperor himself. Wang Mang's reign was short (he died in AD 23) but he immediately set about enacting some serious monetary reforms. In the early years of his reign, he nationalized gold and ordered people to hand it in, in return for his new coinage. All private coinage was banned with prison sentences for those who used it. Later on, even those who knew people were using other coinage but didn't report it were imprisoned (as many as 100,000 people were imprisoned under these rules).

As for Wang Mang's own currency, these new coins were markedly debased compared to what they were replacing: in terms of gold, they were worth almost half as much. Added to this, the number of different coins in Wang Mang's scheme was bafflingly complex: there were 28 denominations of coins in total. According to He Liping's account, these actions were less to do with reducing debt than about shoring up Wang Mang's political position at the expense of wealthy nobles. While he might have had some success there, inflation soon followed, as much as can be deduced from the surviving documents of the time: the price of rice rose four times in a year, for example. And despite Wang Mang's best efforts, his subjects stopped using the official currency, instead returning to gold and the coins of the previous regime.

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