The Hour Between Dog and Wolf: Risk-taking, Gut Feelings and the Biology of Boom and Bust. John Coates

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СКАЧАТЬ know it would be very different. If we had to think consciously about every action we took, sporting events would become odd, slow-motion spectacles that few people would have the patience to watch. Worse, in nature and in war we would have long ago fallen prey to some quicker beast.

      I, CAMERA?

      It turns out that there is something wrong with each step in this supposed chain of mental events. The eye takes snapshots rather than movies; but even these snapshots are not a photographic and objective record of the outside world. All sensory information comes to us tampered with. Like the news on TV, it is filtered, warped and pre-interpreted in a way designed to catch our attention, ease comprehension and speed our reactions.

      Take for instance the ways in which the brain deals with the problem of the one-tenth-of-a-second delay between viewing a moving object and becoming consciously aware of it. Such a delay puts us in constant danger, so the brain’s visual circuits have devised an ingenious way of helping us. The brain anticipates the actual location of the object, and moves the visual image we end up seeing to this hypothetical new location. In other words, your visual system fast-forwards what you see.

      An extraordinary idea, but how on earth could we ever prove it to be true? Neuroscientists are devilishly clever at tricking the brain into revealing its secrets, and in this case they have recorded the visual fast-forwarding by means of an experiment investigating what is called the ‘flash-lag effect’. In this experiment a person is shown an object, say a blue circle, with another circle inside it, a yellow one. The small yellow circle flashes on and off, so what you see is a blue circle with a yellow circle blinking inside it. Then the blue circle with the yellow one inside starts moving around your computer screen. What you should see is a moving blue circle with a blinking yellow one inside it. But you do not. Instead you see a blue circle moving around the screen with a blinking yellow circle trailing about a quarter of an inch behind it. What is going on is this: while the blue circle is moving, your brain advances the image to its anticipated actual location, given the one-tenth-of-a-second time lag between viewing it and being aware of it. But the yellow circle, blinking on and off, cannot be anticipated, so it is not advanced. It thus appears to be left behind by the fast-forwarded blue circle.

      The eye and brain perform countless other such tricks in order to speed up our understanding of the world. Our retina tends to focus on the front edge of a moving object, to help us track it. We process more information in the lower half of our visual field, because there is normally more to see on the ground than in the sky. We group objects into units of three or four in order to perceive numbers rather than count them, a process, known as subitising, that comes in handy when assessing the number of opponents in battle. We rapidly and unconsciously assume an object is alive if it moves in certain ways, regularly changing direction say, or avoiding other objects, and then pay it closer attention than we would if it was inanimate.

      Our reaction times can also be speeded up by relying more on hearing than vision. That may seem counter-intuitive. Light travels faster than sound, much faster, so visual images reach our senses before sounds. However, once the sensations reach our eyes and ears, the relative speeds of the processing circuits reverse. Hearing is faster and more acute than seeing, about 25 per cent so, and responding to an auditory cue rather than a visual one can save us up to 50 milliseconds. The reason is that sound receptors in the ear are much faster and more sensitive than anything in the eye. Many athletes, such as tennis and table-tennis players, rely on the sound a ball makes on a racket or bat as much as on the sight of its trajectory. A ball hit for speed broadcasts a different sound from one sliced or spun, and this information can save a player the precious few milliseconds that separate winners from losers.

      If we now add up all the time delays between an event occurring in the outside world and our perceiving it, we discover the following lovely fact. For events occurring at a distance, we see them first and hear them with a delay, as we do, for example, when seeing lightning and hearing the thunder afterwards. But for events taking place close to us, we hear them, because of our rapid auditory system and relatively slow visual one, slightly in advance of seeing them. There is, though, a point at which sights and sounds are perceived as occurring simultaneously, and that point is located about ten to fifteen metres from us, a point known as the ‘horizon of simultaneity’.

      Could our more rapid hearing provide traders with an edge over competitors? Right now, all price feeds onto a trading floor are visual images on a computer screen. But the technology does exist for supplying audio price feeds. These have already been supplied to blind people, and apparently they sound much like an audiocassette on fast forward. Such a feed could give traders a 40-millisecond edge. That is not much time. But who knows, it could prove decisive when hitting a bid or lifting an offer during a fast market.

      Bringing a trader’s hearing into play may have a further advantage. Research in experimental psychology has found that perceptual acuity and general levels of attention increase as more senses are involved. In other words, vision becomes more acute when coupled with hearing, and both become more acute when coupled with touch. The explanation ventured for these findings is that information arriving from two or more senses instead of just one increases the probability that it is reporting a real event, so our brain takes it more seriously. Many older trading floors may have inadvertently capitalised on this phenomenon, because they came equipped with an intercom to the futures exchanges, with an announcer reporting bond futures prices: ‘One, two … one, two … three, four … fours gone, fives lifted, size coming in at six …’ and so on. With the advent of computerised pricing services, many companies felt this voice feed was antiquated and discontinued the service. Yet by bringing in a second sense it may have been an effective way of sharpening attention and reactions among the traders.

      KNOWING BEFORE KNOWING

      All these ad hoc adjustments to the information being transmitted to your conscious brain keep you from falling hopelessly behind the world. But the brain has an even more effective way of saving you from your fatally slow consciousness. When fast reactions are demanded it cuts out consciousness altogether and relies instead on reflexes, automatic behaviour and what is called ‘pre-attentive processing’. Pre-attentive processing is a type of perception, decision-making and movement initiation that occurs without any consultation with your conscious brain, and before it is even aware of what is going on.

      This processing, and its importance to survival, has nowhere been better described than in the extraordinary book All Quiet on the Western Front, written by Erich Maria Remarque, a soldier who served in the trenches during the First World War. Remarque explains that to survive on the front soldiers had to learn very quickly to pick out from the general din the ‘malicious, hardly audible buzz’ of the small shells called daisy cutters, for these were the ones that killed infantry. Experienced soldiers could do this, and developed reactions that kept them alive even amid an artillery bombardment: ‘At the sound of the first droning of the shells,’ Remarque tells us, ‘we rush back, in one part of our being, a thousand years. By the animal instinct that is awakened in us we are led and protected. It is not conscious; it is far quicker, much more sure, less fallible, than consciousness. One cannot explain it. A man is walking along without thought or heed; – suddenly he throws himself down on the ground and a storm of fragments flies harmlessly over him; – yet he cannot remember either to have heard the shell coming or to have thought of flinging himself down. But had he not abandoned himself to the impulse he would now be a heap of mangled flesh. It is this other, this second sight in us, that has thrown us to the ground and saved us, without our knowing how.’

      Neuroscientists have long known that most of what goes on in the brain is pre-conscious. Compelling evidence of this fact can be found in the work of scientists who have calculated the bandwidth of human consciousness. Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania, for example, have found that the human retina transmits to the brain approximately 10 million bits of information per second, roughly the capacity of an ethernet connection; and Manfred Zimmermann, a German physiologist, has calculated that our other senses record an additional one million bits of information СКАЧАТЬ