Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis. Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов

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СКАЧАТЬ CPI values are directly related to peaks of solar activity. And this holds even if you calculate it over two centuries.

      If we then begin calculations from the point of active development of capitalism, throwing out the values prior to 1860, then this relationship is very immediate and direct. Is this randomness or not? This is regular.

      The highest inflation is seen more often during a period of dominance by the third generation elite. Mass protests begin at peaks of growth of the price of consumer baskets. Protests are emotionalized and usually driven by hysteroids. In 1812 were the wars in Europe, the beginning of the Russian Patriotic War. 1862 saw protest demonstrations worldwide, the beginning of the US Civil War, processes related to the change in serfdom in Russia etc. In 1917 there was revolution in Russia, and the beginning of mass revolutionary demonstrations worldwide. In 1981 there was a buildup of discontent among the people, and in response, the beginning of active debt financing of the middle class households in the US, the beginning of the policy of Reaganomics. While in 1980 the GDP in the US contracted by 0.3%, in 1988 it had risen by more than 4%. The effect of the policy of Reaganomics is clear. But this policy gradually led to propping up those households that were not sufficiently viable, that is, unavoidably the post-postresonators made a gradual appearance in the economy. The very continuation of this process alongside the appearance of the third-generation elite quickly brought the US and other countries in the same cycle of development to the current psychoeconomic crisis.

      Hysteroids increase their activity at a peak of the sun’s activity, the greatest emotional reactions of this psychotype appear when social discontent has come to a head. Often this happens alongside growth in the value of the consumer basket.

      An increasing span of time often occurs between the highest peaks in the CPI. This occurs at 50 – 55 – 64 years, with an average is 56 years. But why not 72 years? 72 years is the period of the existence of the three successive generations of political elites in countries with endogenous causes of development. The cost of the consumer basket is determined, first of all, by the economically active population. Post-postresonators in the economy often just go under (if they don’t have political cover). Resonators then come into their place, and the consumer basket begins to drop in value. But post-postresonators more and more often find their support among the elite, especially the third generation.

      With each century or decade, the decline of the post-postresonators tends to occur later and later. This is due to many factors, but one has not been mentioned: the growth of the activity of the social motivators, the policy of the government, whereby the more the government supports households, the longer the post-postresonators avoid ruin. Through the policy of Reaganomics since 1981 the US government began to actively support households by means of cheaper and cheaper credit.

      Solar activity exerts a more direct effect on people of higher emotionality, the hysteroids. This is precisely the initial point of influence of cyclicity of solar activity on the progression and cyclicity of change in the basic psychotypes on Earth. At the same time, the increase in labor productivity is driven by the resonators, whose psychotype is opposite that of hysteroids. These are people who usually have paranoiac traits. The cycle of economic development under their influence is less related to the activity of the sun than is the cycle of development under the influence of the activity of hysteroids.

      This approach by and large explains why the Kondatriev cycle has become a little skewed, it now differes from what it was in past centuries. And the more the US inflates the assets of the household and support their market, the more the period of activity of the post-postresonators in the economy is dragged out. This affects not only the US, but also other countries in the same development cycle.

      In regard to what has been said, it is clear why the peak of CPI is antiphasic to the values of the material asset indexes. Hysteroids begin to increase their influence along with the growth of the consumer basket. They impart tone to economic processes. But hysteroids are more oriented by their type of intellect toward non-material values. At one point, Karl Marx called them “aesthetes” (see Das Kapital, v. 1, chapter 3). This point in the work of Marx is of such interest that it is worth quoting his thinking:

      “In order that gold may be held as money, and made to form a hoard, it must be prevented from circulating, or from transforming itself into a means of enjoyment. The hoarder, therefore, makes a sacrifice of the lusts of the flesh to his gold fetish. He acts in earnest up to the Gospel of abstention. On the other hand, he can withdraw from circulation no more than what he has thrown into it in the shape of commodities. The more he produces, the more he is able to sell. Hard work, saving and avarice, are, therefore, his three cardinal virtues, and to sell much and buy little the sum of his political economy.

      “To increase a possibly greater number of sellers of all commodities, or to reduce a possibly larger number of consumers – such is the main question which all measures of the political economy come down to.” (Verri.).

      “By the side of the gross form of a hoard, we find also its æsthetic form in the possession of gold and silver articles. This grows with the wealth of civil society. ‘Soyons riches ou paraissons riches.’ (Diderot). In this way there is created, on the one hand, a constantly extending market for gold and silver, unconnected with their functions as money, and, on the other hand, a latent source of supply, to which recourse is had principally in times of crisis and social disturbance.”

      In essence, Karl Marx reaches a conclusion about the oscillating changes of economic values – from material to esthetic, psychological, depending on the cycle of economic development. Let us now turn our attention to the fact that we are speaking here of the rise of the psychological function of wealth in proportion to its growth. We are also speaking of the psychological peculiarities of people who are occupied with accumulation and so forth.

      Values oscillate between the real and fictitious economy. The price of shares is more suited for the imagination of hysteroids, for the fantasy of auditory types. For kinesthetic types, or domain experts, the variation in the prices of gold, oil or raw materials is more familiar… With the change in the balance of psychotypes of the economically active population, or more precisely with the change in the fundamental metaprograms of these psychotypes, the monetary balance of these assets also changes. Naturally this change is not total, but occurs at the level of cumulative causes: one metaprogram has barely changed in one market participant, in another, in a third etc. And that’s how the market unfolds… We must bear in mind that in each person there are both a kinetic and audial beginning. Most commonly this is a transformation, a correction in the psychotype of specific individuals. The first one changes a little, then the second does, then the third… the accumulation of these changes constitutes another movement in the market… Naturally, indoctrination, mimesis, conformity and other processes are active here that regulate the transmission of information from one person to another, and regulate socio-psychological processes. These swings have become cyclical, while thanks to globalization they penetrate the economically active population, the economy of the majority of countries.

      But where does the opinion of economists themselves come down on this topic? By analyzing the appended chart of cyclical interrelationship of the price of material and immaterial assets, they have reached the conclusion that between stock prices and the price of non-monetary assets there are 16 annual cycles. This is so whether we count from the minima or maxima. But is it accidental that in our case for each psychotype, two maximum peaks of solar radiation occur and that three times 16 exactly gives 48? This is the minimal value of the Kondratiev cycle, and the two psychotypes that provide intensive development are resonators and postresonators.

      When analyzing Kondratiev cycles and their dependence on solar activity earlier, we concluded that for each psychotype of the economically active population two peaks of solar activity elapse. At one peak this psychotype comes to dominate the economy, and at the other occurs the preparation for his departure from making primary economic decisions. At a third peak, the next psychotype comes into dominance. СКАЧАТЬ