Psychoeconomics: globalization, markets, crisis. Николай Игнатьевич Конюхов

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СКАЧАТЬ two on the third-generation elite. Seventy-two years are gone. Regarding the replacement of social motivators by domain experts (in our concept, not just domain experts, but special types, resonators), this coincides with a 24-year cycle. But the domination in business by people with traces of hysteroidism may simply not occur. They commonly are swept up by a violent competitive struggle, especially if a large, developing country is nearby. Enterprises under the management of psychopathic, hysteroidal people due to these unfavorable exogenous factors simply go bankrupt. This explains why Kondratiev cycles are somewhat different from a 72-year cycle. But by any interpretation, this is not less than 48 years.

      The moment of increased solar activity does not usually mean a changeover of psychotypes’ authority. It is an idiosyncratic indicator of the transition of influence of cumulative forces from supporting one psychotype to blocking its development. But by themselves these changes occur gradually, slowly, cumulatively. Suddenly they all begin to recognize that something in the system of socioeconomic relationships was not working out as required. The recognized contradictions begin to grow, authority built on certain psychological bases begins to crumble, and another authority arises.

      With regard to resonators, they exist in any period of socioeconomic development. But here there arises a succession of them to become leaders in the new spiral of socioeconomic development. They increasingly begin to be aware of themselves and to feel the strength to dash into their activity (if they can catch the influence of cumulative causes). And after their peak of solar activity, this process speeds up. The psychophysiological causes are clear. In a period of solar activity, the mechanism of closing and opening conditioned reflexes, of changing the stereotypes of our thinking, works better. And by themselves the resonators, and importantly, those surrounding them, begin to understand capabilities of different population groups and their own capabilities, and to understand whom it is best to rely on. This benefits everyone.

      But along comes a new peak of solar activity. Again the stereotypes of thinking begin to actively change. And gradually, cumulatively, people come together who understand that the efforts of the resonators may be improved by activation of external contacts, and not by searching for a new example, but by reproducing examples that are known to work well. This process accelerates at the next peak of solar activity. This is the first peak of solar activity for postresonators. At the second peak of solar activity, the feeling arises that everything is not going as wished.

      Just as postresonators come to power, they are analogously replaced by post-postresonators. Or the economy of a given country is seized by the economically active subjects of other countries, and is ruined through competing with them. Sometimes this competition is blocked, such as by passing laws (e.g. 1933 in the U.S.) that introduce duties on imported goods. Sometimes it is simply blocked physically (e.g. the “Boston Tea Party” etc.) This tends to happen in countries that are leaders in military-political relationships.

      Sometimes the elite in one or another government seems to have been appointed by the administration of another, more powerful government. The cycle will likewise be other than 72 years.

      But on the whole, if we are talking about the effect of endogenous factors, altogether 72 years pass, and again a first-generation elite comes forth into the historical arena. But the moment of transition of power from the third-generation elite to the first-generation elite is usually hysterical, and often as not colored by bloodshed, especially if this occurs during special activity of the post-postresonators. The hysterical nature of the manifestation of the post-postresonators is polymorphous. One of these manifestations is the active inclusion of defensive reactions. Rational arguments are rejected with passion, vehemence, and they are hidden behind the denunciation of others…

      But have there been more psychoeconomic crises like this? There is reason to suppose that the depression was one such, while in the opinion of some authors, the years 1873-1896 were also a crisis. U.S. economists have a somewhat different view of the boundaries of that depression, namely 1873-1879. But this is a more endogenous factor for Germany. For the U.S. it already possessed signs of being exogenous. Here, similar psychoeconomical dependencies appeared as with the crisis of 1929-1933. Leading to the market panic in 1873, bubbles in the real estate and property markets were inflated and there was a precipitous drop in share prices, etc. But the main evidence that the psychotypes of the economically active population had eventually changed in the direction of the appearance of an ever larger number of resonators is the change in the rates of development of the country. Germany leads in industrial growth. The average annual growth of industrial production in 1891-1913 in England was 2.1%, in the U.S., 4.12%, while in Germany, it was 4.2%. That is, cycles of economic development rooted in endogenous factors may be different in different countries and may not coincide.

      It is amazing that the cycles described coincide with the period of cycles of development of humanity presented in the Book of Veles (Vedic religion).

      In the Vedic calendar there are sacred numbers, including 144. In the Vedic periodization, a cycle occurs called the Circle of Life. This lasts 144 years. If we start from this premise, then 72 years is half the Circle of Life. It is not impossible that systemic changes in people’s psychology are at the bottom and in a 144-year cycle, which is likewise connected with cycles of solar activity.

      We notice that according to the Maya calendar (December 21) and the Vedic calendar, a new epoch begins in 2012 – the Age of Aquarius, which replaces the Piscean Age. With the change of epochs, new patterns in the interrelationships of psychotypes will appear. If we subtract 144 years from 2012, we get 1868. We can tentatively take this for the beginning cycle of social changes in the U.S. Typing in the combination “1868” and “USA” into the Internet, we get the answer.

      The presidential elections in the U.S. in 1868 were the first after the Civil War, in which General Grant won in a landslide, with extension of the right to vote to former slaves. In that year an amendment to the Constitution of the United States was passed, which guarantees United States citizenship to all people born on its territory. There is something to reflect on, knowing the place of birth of U.S. President Obama and the polemics on this topic.

      But we need these calculations more for the psychological, intuitive, sacred prompting of a very important year in the turning point of the crisis of 1929-1933: 1940 arrives.

      To confirm the reasonableness of a similar conclusion, let us examine the chart of change in these years of unemployment in the U.S. –

      http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/58/US_Unemployment_1910-1960.gif

      The total number of unemployed in 1933 reached 17 million people, which was a quarter of the country’s entire workforce. So how can this year be considered the year the crisis ended?

      But in 1939, qualitative reforms began in the U.S. economy and the pre-crisis level of industrial production was reached. However, American economists themselves are better able to speak about this. “Government policy adopted after the Great Depression gave birth to a new economic order… During the war, government expenses reached an unprecedented level. The country utilized all of its production capacity and hired practically all working-age Americans. And although most of its energy was directed at satisfying military needs, the total level of production met the requirements of the society. By the end of the war most Americans who had lived through it found themselves in a more lucrative condition than before the war, and the Great Depression, undoubtedly, was over.” (see: [1], pp. 28-29).

      A profound meaning is to be found in these words. What is full employment of the population, a full workload of industry? This is a time when resonators and domain experts are at the center of attention and everyone depends on them. Previously much, if not all, depended on “knocking out” orders, and on the system of selling the manufactured product (social motivators sell), on the preferences on the part of the government (the social motivators likewise tackle those), etc. During the war, СКАЧАТЬ