Risk Assessment. Georgi Popov

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       Document the results

       Follow‐up on actions taken

1.3 Risk Assessment Methods

      One of the purposes of this book is to present a variety of risk assessment methods and they are described throughout the text. For many hazards, the proper level of acceptable risk can be attained without bringing together complex teams of people. Safety and health professionals and design engineers having the experience and education can reach the proper conclusions on what constitutes acceptable risk. As defined in Z590.3, acceptable risk is:

      Acceptable Risk. That risk for which the probability of an incident or exposure occurring and the harm or damage that may result are as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) in the setting being considered.

      ALARP – as low as reasonably practicable – is defined as that level of risk which can be further lowered only by an increase in resource expenditure that is disproportionate in relation to the resulting decrease in risk. (p. 12)

      For the more complex risk situations, management should have processes in place to seek the counsel of experienced personnel who are particularly skilled in risk assessment for the category of the situation being considered. More complex risk assessment methods may be necessary in such situations.

      Sometimes, for what an individual considers obvious, achieving consensus on acceptable risk levels is still desirable so that buy‐in is obtained for the actions to be taken.

It is suggested that the risk assessment method chosen fits the need. Sometimes, the method need not be complex. Information on a rather simplistic method follows. Its intent is to be illustrative.

      Dated March 2020, NIOSH issued eNews Volume 17, Number 11, under the signature of the Director of NIOSH, Dr. John Howard. Its title is Using Science to Assess Workplace Hazards: NIOSH Practices in Occupational Risk Assessment. Content of this eNews follows:

       What is Risk Assessment? Do you check for rain before deciding to carry an umbrella? Doing so is an example of risk assessment, which describes a process for answering three basic questions on a particular hazard.

       What can happen? (It may rain today.)

       How likely will it happen? (The Weather Channel says 70% chance of showers.)

       What are the consequences if it happens? (I’ll be soaked without my umbrella.)

      The answers provide a foundation for preventing or lessening the threat imposed by the hazard (e.g. carry an umbrella to avoid getting wet if caught in the rain) known as risk management.

      One can take the position that NIOSH was overly simplistic. However, if a person follows the procedure outlined in the foregoing, that person has made a risk assessment.

1.4 The ANSI/ASSP Z690 – 2011 Series

      The ANSI/ASSP Z690 Risk Management Standards are the US national standards for applying risk management for occupational safety and health. They are the US adoption of the ISO 31000 Risk Management Standards.

      The three ANSI Standards that constitute a set should be of interest to safety generalists who want to become familiar with risk assessment techniques. The ASSP is the secretariat. Comments on the three standards follow:

      ANSI/ASSP Z690.1 – 2011: Vocabulary for Risk Management (National Adoption of ISO Guide 73:2009). This standard provides definitions of terms that, the originators hope, will be used in other standards.

      ANSI/ASSP Z690.2 – 2011: Risk Management Principles and Guidelines (National Adoption of ISO 31,000:2009). The intent of this standard is to provide a broad‐range primer on risk management systems that could be applied in any type of organization. The requirement for risk assessments is introduced in Section 5.4: Risk Assessment.

      ANSI/ASSP Z 690.3 – 2011: Risk Assessment Techniques (National Adoption of IEC/ISO 31,010:2009). For safety generalists who want a ready reference on risk assessment concepts and methods, this standard is worth acquiring. It commences with a 15‐page dissertation on risk assessment concepts and methods. Appendix A, in five pages, provides brief comparisons of 31 risk assessment techniques. Comments on the 31 techniques, covering Overview, Use, Inputs, Process, Strengths, and Limitations, are provided in Annex B which covers 79 pages.

ANSI/ASSP Z 690.3 – 2011, particularly, is a valuable resource. A list of the 31 risk assessment techniques follows. Some could be applied only by experienced safety professionals who had knowledge of system safety concepts and techniques. Other techniques would be used by probabilistic specialists. However, having knowledge of a few of them will serve for a huge percentage of the needs of a safety generalist.

B01	Brainstorming	B02	Structured or Semi‐Structured Interviews
B03	Delphi	B04	Checklists
B05	Preliminary Hazard Analysis	B06	Hazard and Operability Studies
B07	Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points	B08	Environmental Risk Assessment
B09	Structure – What if Analysis	B10	Scenario Analysis
B11	Business Impact Analysis	B12	Root Cause Analysis
B13	Failure Mode Effect Analysis	B14	Fault Tree Analysis
B15	Event Tree Analysis	B16	Cause and Consequence Analysis
B17	Cause‐and‐Effect Analysis	B18	Layer Protection Analysis
B19	Decision Tree	B20	Human Reliability Analysis
B21	Bow Tie Analysis	B22	Reliability Centered Maintenance
B23	Sneak Circuit Analysis	B24	Markov Analysis
B25	Monte Carlo Simulation	B26	Bayesian Statistics and Bayes Nets
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