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4 Multifaceted Impact of Lockdown During COVID‐19 on Food Security and Smallholder Agricultural Systems

       Aishwarya1, Meenu Rani2, Bhagwan Singh Chaudhary3, Bharat Lal1, Rajiv Nandan1, and Pavan Kumar4

       1 College of Agriculture, Rani Lakshmi Bai Central Agricultural University, Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh, India

       2 Department of Geography, Kumaun University, Nainital, Uttarakhand, India

       3 Department of Geophysics, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, Haryana, India

       4 College of Horticulture and Forestry, Rani Lakshmi Bai Central Agricultural University, Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh, India

      CONTENTS

4.1 Introduction

With the emergence of coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) as a public health emergency of international concern, India seems to be one of the top vulnerable countries. COVID‐19 is the seventh member of the coronavirus family and in the past six other types have already been reported. The genetic and genome structure of COVID‐19 is approximately 80% similar to that of the SARS virus detected in bats (Linton et al. 2020). The symptoms of its infection are almost identical to the seasonal flu where patients may have cold, cough, and fever. However, the actual detection is only possible after the clinical test (Kumar et al. 2021; Singh et al. 2021), which is another big challenge for a populated country like India, with limited testing facilities. Looking at the pace of its spread and the severity of the situation, the WHO on 23 January 2020, declared COVID‐19 outbreak as a public health emergency of international concern (Sohrabi et al. 2020; World Health Organization 2020). The earlier pandemic of Spanish flu in the year 1918 tolled 50 million deaths worldwide (Chatterjee et al. 2020) and remained active for more than the next two years until it was controlled (https://www.history.com/news/spanish‐flu‐second‐wave‐resurgence). Thus, it becomes essential to study the trajectories of infection, death, and recovery for the near future. This is expected to assist policymakers in formulating plans and adopt adequate measures to control any further damage caused by the COVID‐19 (Raghunathan et al. 2019).

4.2 Predictive Model for Deflation of COVID‐19 Spread in India

This result is based on the statistical model generated for the possible decline of COVID‐19 cases and their duration in the country or impact based on parameters such as GDP, control rate, facilities, economic measures, and government policies. Here, the results are based partly on the possible recovery rates, which present a daily increase of 0.5, 1, 1.5, and 2%, and the timeline is set from 21 April 2020. The forecast predicts a cause for concern for the country. Even the precedented recovery rate 1 is 0.5%, recovery rate 2 is 1%, recovery rate 3 is 1.5%, and recovery rate 4 is 2% are assumed, it would take almost one year and nine months, 10 months, eight months, and five months respective recovery rate to completely recover from the pandemic. The decline in the number of the confirmed cases is the steepest and directly proportional to an increase in the recovery rates. Therefore, this hypothesis is totally based on the abovementioned parameters and how effectively they are executed in preventing the spread of this pandemic. It indicates the possible range of minimum and maximum duration required by the country to recover from this pandemic (Figure 4.1).

4.3 Impact on the National Economy

We are living in a historical time; the bad thing is that whenever this page of history is opened, it will open with sorrow and suffering. Everyone is talking about the impact of COVID‐19,but only on national or on urban conditions. Unfortunately, not much СКАЧАТЬ