The United States vs. China. C. Fred Bergsten

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      1 1. Noland and Zhang (2021) calculate that Trump would have been reelected in 2020 absent the coronavirus pandemic, or even had its impact on America’s health and economy been 20–30 percent less.

      2 2. For a fictional but highly plausible account of a full (i.e., military) “Thucydides trap” conflict, see Ackerman and Stavridis (2021).

      3 3. The dean of Chinese science-fiction writers similarly speculates that any galactic civilization that detects the existence of another spacefaring species must regard the latter as an existential threat and immediately seek to destroy it without attempting to discern its intentions (Liu and Liu 2016).

      4 4. Layne (2020) concurs that “the parallels could hardly be clearer.” Eminent historian Margaret Macmillan (2020) agrees that the First World War “was the result of the clash between a major global power feeling its advantages slip away and a rising challenger.”

      5 5. Even hawkish Aaron Friedberg concurs that engagement was “a reasonable gamble,” although he shares the now widespread consensus that “it has failed to pay off” (Friedberg 2012).

      6 6. But see Rogin (2021) for an illuminating analysis of the sharp differences within the Trump Administration on these issues, and its failure to produce a coherent policy on the matter.