Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century. Alexander Lanoszka
Чтение книги онлайн.

Читать онлайн книгу Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century - Alexander Lanoszka страница 11

СКАЧАТЬ they commonly face. The second motive is that strong states use the alliance relationship as a vehicle for expanding their influence over others. This is supposed to be especially true of asymmetric alliances, in which at least one member is significantly greater in military and economic capabilities than another. In these arrangements, the stronger state is able to extract key concessions from its weaker counterpart.

      As this chapter illustrates, however, the problem with these standard arguments about alliance formation is threefold. First, although threat-based arguments provide a powerful explanation for why states form alliances, they remain insufficient in accounting for the patterns that we see, for the simple reason that shared threat perceptions do not always lead to formal alliances. No one set of factors will ever systematically lead states to sign an alliance, in part because alliances are costly. States sometimes might not wish to get exposed to the disputes of potential allies. Second, existing understandings overstate the concessions that even great powers can extract from weaker states by way of a treaty. And third, the foregoing explanations of alliance formation do not explain why a written alliance treaty is actually a necessary condition for achieving such ends as balancing and concession-extracting. This chapter argues that a signed alliance treaty is desirable not just for defining the terms of a commitment, but also, ironically, for injecting a certain amount of vagueness into the language of the agreement itself. Alliance treaties thread the needle between certainty and ambiguity, permitting states to be more comfortable about deepening their military cooperation, if they choose to do so.

      The second observation is that violence not only is possible under anarchy, but can, in the extreme, lead to the elimination of a state or its governing political system (Fazal 2007). This potential for violence raises the stakes for international cooperation. Some states may be able to wield sufficient capabilities that they can defend against most threats without needing the support of others. Most states are not so fortunate and thus may have to seek outside assistance in order to get a handle on the challenges that they face. Precisely because of the high stakes that are involved, alliance decisions can be emotional, sometimes turning on fear, distrust, and even anger. That alliance politics can have a strong emotional dimension does not automatically imply irrational behavior. A park visitor would be right to be afraid of a hungry grizzly bear in his or her path, but some responses to mitigate that danger are more sensible than others.

      But what exactly is the danger that drives alliance formation? A classic explanation for why states establish defensive military alliances is that they are seeking to balance power. According to balance of power theory, states tend to band together so as to prevent a potential hegemon – that is, a state forecast to wield a preponderance of military and economic capabilities СКАЧАТЬ