A Comparative View of the Mortality of the Human Species, at All Ages. Black William

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СКАЧАТЬ the bridegroom is from six to twelve years older than the bride; and therefore should, in the course of nature, die sooner: and perhaps also more widowers, comparatively with the other sex, enter into a second marriage; which tends to reduce their numbers. Besides, husbands are more exposed to the vicissitudes of the weather and seasons, to excessive labour and noxious trades, and to many other causes of diseases. Dr. Price finds, that the sexes respectively commence to be widowers and widows about 52 and 44; that is, men and women entering into matrimony, on a general average, at the age of 33 and 25, will become widowers and widows at 52 and 44: consequently, that each marriage will be dissolved by the death of one of them, in nineteen years; which is the ultimate term and probability of the husband and wife being both alive. For although some marriages may be protracted forty and fifty years, yet others may be dissolved in one year, or in a shorter time.

We have not yet sufficient information to determine the comparative chances of Female Longevity in the married and single state. At Berlin, indeed, calculators have remarked, that there were more married women alive at great ages, than of those who remained single. But such result might naturally be expected from a greater proportion in the decline of life of widows and wives, compared to antiquated virgins. From the ages of fifteen to twenty-five, married women likewise are said to have the advantage of the single, in whom the dictates of nature are frustrated and violated.

Comparing the mortality of the Seasons, Dr. Short found, from a variety of country-registers, that mortality generally begins its reign in December; that at March it is in its zenith; and at May in its declension. In twenty-five country towns and parishes, he found the winter to the summer mortality as 50 to 41. At Manchester, a country town of England, Dr. Percival found the winter to the summer mortality as 11 to 8. At Vevey, in Switzerland, during sixty years, Mr. Muret found the burials, during the four winter months, as 5 to 4 to those of the summer. Another proof of this is recorded in the Recherches sur la Population, par Messance: The total sick admitted into the Hotel Dieu hospital in Paris, from 1724 to 1763 (forty years) were, in the four winter months, December, January, February, and March, 314,824; and in the four summer months, June, July, August, September, 238,522; or as 4 to 3. In London too, the undertaker’s, harvest is in winter. There is one obvious reason why, in every metropolis, the winter mortality should exceed that of summer, from the greater concourse of inhabitants of all ranks: but, independent of additional population in winter, the same law seems to prevail in country places. In a subsequent part I shall attempt to throw some collateral illustration upon the subject.

      Let us close this humiliating scene with a general abstract of human carnage. If we scan the dolorous mansions of disease, we find, on an average, 1 death, annually, out of every 5 families in cities: but in country towns, and open districts, 1 of 7, 8, 9; and in a few healthy places, 1 of every 10 families. Including the whole assemblage of inhabitants in city, town, and country, from birth to the extreme of existence, they are computed to die in the following annual proportion to the living: In London, 1 of 21; Dublin, 1 of 22; Edinburgh, 1 of 21; Vienna, 1 of 20; Amsterdam, 1 of 22; Berlin, 1 of 26. This is nearly Dr. Price’s calculation; but Halley and Susmilch compute only 1 of 22 to 29 to die annually in cities. In smaller cities and towns, such as Norwich and Northampton, the general average of deaths is 1 of 24 to 26; but in several provinces and healthy country villages, 1 of 32 and 33, up to 45, 50, and even 60, is the annual drain: 1 of 43 to 50 was the average in upwards of a thousand country parishes on the continent; and recorded in Susmilch. Within the above short intervals of time, there will have died in the respective cities and country places enumerated, a number equal to the whole inhabitants. But the annual decrease of the oppressed Negroes, in the West India islands, is estimated at 1 of 7.

The ancient Egyptians allotted 3 generations to a century, which is bordering upon the truth; at this day, 1 of 32 and 33 up to 35, is near the measure of a generation, and to the general decrease of a community throughout Europe, comprehending all the inhabitants in city, village, and country: that is, mankind share amongst them from about 32 and 33 to 35 years each of existence: and within this fugitive interval of time, a number equal to all the present inhabitants of this island, or of the whole earth, will be exterminated. If we extend this estimate to the whole human race, eight hundred million will die in 33 years; about twenty-eight million annually; seventy or eighty thousand daily; about three thousand hourly; and from fifty to sixty every minute. It is perhaps superfluous to add, that, in the same intervals, an equal or superior number will be born.

      According to De Moivre and Dr. Price, “the probabilities or expectation of life, decrease as we advance from childhood to old age, in an arithmetical progression; that is, in such a manner that the difference is always the same between the number of persons living at the beginning of any one year, and the number living at the beginning of the following year.” Or, in other words, less enveloped in mathematical obscurity, out of any specified number, an hundred or a thousand, the same proportion will continue to die every year until near 80 years of age and upwards: consequently, the probabilities of life are constantly decreasing; because notwithstanding the progressive annual drain from the capitals, yet the deaths continue throughout equal. But this proportion is certainly erroneous in the first stages of life, and until about 10. View the above proposition in another light.

      From any given number there will be an equal drain annually, until what De Moivre terms the complement or maximum, or utmost probable extreme of life, which he fixes at 86, all are dead. The probability, therefore, that the whole of any limited number whatsoever, or age, will all be exterminated is the number of years between 86 and the year such a number are all alive. Of 56 persons alive at 30, they should all be dead in 56 years, because 56 added to 30 amounts to 86, the maximum: of 46 persons alive at 40 years of age, they should all be dead in 46 years: and 36 persons alive at 50 years of age, should be dead in 36 years; for 50 and 36 complete the maximum. Again, the expectation of any single life is only half the maximum or complement, or half the space between that age and the ultimate term of existence: but here we must repeat the former exception, and draw the line after 10 years of age. The expectation of two equal joint lives, according to De Moivre, is one third of the complement of life. Example: two lives, aged 40, have an even chance or probable prospect of continuing together in exigence only 15 years; which is the third of the complement, reckoning from 40 to 86: the expectation of the survivor is also 15. Or, suppose a lot of marriages of persons at 40 years of age, they will, on an average, continue together 15½ years; and the survivors the same time after. This expectation, therefore, is the probable duration of each marriage, and the share of each person’s life. But it may be proper to add, that the duration of marriages, and the value of single and joint lives, will, on a promiscuous calculation, be different from the registers of annuitant and insurance offices; because they are scrupulously vigilant to exclude all diseased and unhealthy persons from becoming members.

      The following Chart and Tables, present a distinct prospect of the fates clipping the mortal thread, from birth to old age, in city and country. But we are not to suppose that in every instance there will be annually a regular arithmetical diminution, as marked in the different tables: some years will be more fatal than others; and we are to form estimates from an average of several years. The first column points out the age, the second the number living at that age, the third the number who die during the year; and so on to the end of the table. But observe, that the number of infants, at the beginning of the second column, are supposed to be all born together on the first day of that year; and this rule applies throughout all the remaining ages. The two short tables of 15 and 30 years mortality in London, demonstrate the gradations at longer intervals than a single year. From these different tables may be estimated the annual waste, out of any specified number, at all ages, the ultimate prospects of existence, and the odds or probability of a person in health surviving a stated number of years.

A GENERAL CHART, with different Tables, Exhibiting the Gradations of Mortality in City and Country.

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