The Squeeze: Oil, Money and Greed in the 21st Century. Tom Bower
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СКАЧАТЬ had become embroiled in a public relations battle with a left-wing pressure group over BP’s involvement in a civil war, the narcotics business and a regime of terror waged by paramilitaries employed to protect BP’s 450-mile oil pipeline. The alleged victims were native farmers whose land had been portrayed in an orchestrated campaign as confiscated, their water reserves depleted and their livestock slaughtered. Worst of all, the oil wells were producing less than half what Browne had anticipated. After substantial criticism, BP would eventually compensate the farmers. BP’s rivals were suffering similar disappointments. On the basis of promising geology, Mobil had invested heavily in Peru. ‘I mean, this was classic,’ said Lou Noto, the company’s president. ‘This is the classic way of how to do it. Yet we came up with a dry well – $35 million later.’ Exxon had similar failures in Somalia, Mali, Tanzania, Mozambique, Nigeria, Chad and Morocco. Shell wasted money in Madagascar and Guatemala. Arco had wasted $163 million drilling 13 orphans in Alaska. Over the previous decade, about $14 billion had been dissipated in unsuccessful attempts to repeat the last big finds in the North Sea and Alaska. Those discoveries had cut OPEC’s share of the world’s oil production from 50 per cent in the 1970s to 30 per cent in 1985. In 1994, OPEC’s share rebounded to 43 per cent, while it retained 77 per cent of the world’s reserves. Shell fired 11,000 of its 106,000 worldwide workforce. In the same year, American production fell to 6.9 million barrels a day, the lowest since 1958, and the country became a permanent net importer of oil. With demand for oil rising, OPEC’s influence appeared certain to increase. Those statistics encouraged Browne in 1995, despite his earlier reservations, to seek opportunities in Russia.

      Russia’s oil could replenish the oil majors’ reserves and counter OPEC’s influence. Despite the bribes and the gangsters, none of the oil chiefs jetting into Russia on their private jets from Texas and California hesitated to assert their indispensability in saving Russia from destitution, and US vice president Al Gore did not pause to consider the consequences of flying to Kazakhstan in December 1993 to encourage the country’s split from Russia, spiting the nationalists in Moscow and St Petersburg. On the contrary, causing anger among the Russians excited President Clinton and others in Washington. Russia’s debt crisis, declining oil production and political instability, they believed, presented an unmissable opportunity. With the US importing half its oil consumption, Clinton made the diversification of supplies a priority, and the Caspian could offer at least 200 billion barrels. To win the gamble, the politicians combined with BP’s John Browne, Exxon’s Lee Raymond and Ken Derr of Chevron to display utter indifference to Russia’s gradual collapse.

       SIX The Booty Hunters

      The introduction of democracy wrecked Russia’s oil industry. To secure political popularity in 1989 for ‘Glasnost’ and ‘Perestroika’ – openness and reform – Mikhail Gorbachev had diverted investment from industry to food and consumer goods. Blessed by reopened borders, free discussion in the media and the waning of the KGB, few in Moscow noticed the crumbling wreckage spreading across the oilfields in western Siberia, an area of 550,000 square miles, nearly the size of Alaska.

      Finding oil in that region after the Second World War had been effortless. Gennady Bogomyakov, the first secretary of the Communist Party in Tyumen province, was famous during the 1950s for increasing production from the easiest and best fields ‘at any price’, regardless of the environmental cost or human welfare. In that plentiful region, Russia’s oil men were blessed with outstanding science, but cursed by problems they themselves caused – poor drilling, damaged reservoirs, neglected equipment and reckless oil spills. Instead of cleaning up the mess, wells were abandoned and the engineers moved on to new fields. Rather than halting the destruction, Gorbachev’s encouragement of a consumer revolution inflamed it. Overnight the flow of money from Moscow to pay for repairs and salaries and to drill new wells stopped. Angered by Moscow’s indifference to their deteriorating working conditions, poor housing and food shortages, the oil workers in 1990 began to produce less oil, the first decline since 1945. The relationships between companies in different regions also began to fracture. Oil companies in Siberia found difficulty in persuading factories in Azerbaijan to supply equipment, especially pumps; and some oilfields in Azerbaijan, the Caspian and western Siberia refused to supply crude oil to refineries.

      After the disintegration of Soviet control over Eastern Europe, Gorbachev was confronted by national governments in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, both oil-rich states, agitating for independence. He remained blithely unaware of the potential problems until the country was struck by shortages of fuel. Petrol stations closed in Moscow, and airlines stopped flying. Beyond the major cities, towns were dark, visitors wore overcoats in their hotel rooms and the harvest in Ukraine was jeopardised. Living standards were falling, and there were threats of strikes. Reports from Siberia warned Gorbachev: ‘The situation is very serious. It is creating an explosive atmosphere.’ The rouble’s value began sliding, Russia’s international debt rose, and the country’s oil companies began bartering oil for equipment, or even demanding dollars for domestic sales. Russia’s daily oil production fell during 1989 from 12 million barrels a day to 11 million. ‘The atmosphere is exceedingly tense despite government promises,’ a trade union leader told the Kremlin. Gorbachev’s indecision, complained L.D. Churilov, president of the government oil company Rosneft, was causing the crisis.

      As oil production in 1990 declined towards 10 million barrels a day, Gorbachev was urged that only foreign investment and Western technology could rescue Russia’s economy from collapse. There were precedents for similar appeals. Ever since the first gusher of oil had burst through a well in Baku in Azerbaijan in June 1873, Russia had allowed foreign companies to produce oil on its territory when times were bad. After the Bolshevik revolution in 1917, and again after the Allied victory in 1945, foreign oil companies had been lured into Russia, only to be expelled as production and prices improved. In 1990, admitting that Russia’s plight was ‘catastrophic’, Gorbachev appealed to Germany for help. His choice was odd: Germany was almost the only Western country without any expertise in oil production. After his invitation was extended to all Western oil companies, many seized the opportunity as an alternative source of oil following Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait. In contrast to the turbulence in the Middle East, Gorbachev appeared to be offering Western oil companies safe investment opportunities in 12 vast areas, totalling the size of the United States, with more oil and gas than the whole of the Middle East. Only a fraction of the oil under the Siberian plains and the Arctic had been extracted.

      Despite the lack of any formal agreements, the oil companies could not resist the opportunity. Loïk Le Floch-Prigent, the chairman of Elf, the corrupt French national oil company, led the way. ‘I’m the boss,’ Le Floch-Prigent insisted, refusing to work with any Russian partner. The French were followed by ENI of Italy, another corporation tinged by corruption whose former chairman, Gabriele Cagliari, would later ‘commit suicide’ in prison, suffocated by a plastic bag. Then came the Anglo-American majors. Exxon and Mobil focused on western Siberia, Chevron sent a team to Kazakhstan, BP and Amoco competed in Azerbaijan, Marathon Oil, a second-division oil corporation based in Houston, snooped around Sakhalin, on the Pacific coast, all jostled by experts representing smaller companies. The Western prospectors had suspected that Russia’s oil industry was, like its military services, ‘Upper Volta with missiles’, an image conjured in the 1970s by a Western intelligence agency, comparing the impoverished West African country with Soviet Russia. None appreciated that the best of Russia’s geologists and engineers were as talented as their Western counterparts; but nor had anyone imagined the chaos of Russia’s oil production. Mediocrity had suffocated the flair.

      The detritus was staggering. Thousands of wells had been damaged or abandoned. By 1989, isolated from the West, Russia’s proud oil engineers had been unaware of technological developments in the outside world. Unable to drill beyond 10,000 feet and ignorant about horizontal drilling, the Russians had СКАЧАТЬ