The BRIC Road to Growth. Jim O'Neill

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СКАЧАТЬ of growth is necessary now, and that the ­medium-term sustainability of growth will be enhanced by slowing down from past rates of expansion.

      Why has China decided that ‘less is more’? There are a number of important structural reasons, and also one ­shorter-term cyclical reason. Following the 2008 global credit crisis, which at its most severe in late 2008 threatened the collapse of the financing of world trade, Beijing unleashed a huge monetary and fiscal expansion to offset the slowdown in Chinese exports and to stimulate growth. The expansionary policies were oriented towards boosting infrastructure investment. Where necessary, direct state-backed investment was stepped up. The policy worked all too well because by late 2009 real GDP growth was already surprisingly strong, and it quickly became apparent that such aggressive counter-cyclical policies were increasing inflationary pressures and exacerbating some deep-seated structural problems in the economy. For example, as early as September 2009 Chinese policymakers were worried about a property market bubble developing, and they began to introduce a series of steps aimed at limiting excessive speculative purchases in China’s cities. Beyond the specific challenges of the property market, policymakers also grew understandably worried about signs of an unwelcome surge in inflation. The dramatic escalation of the European economic and financial crisis dominated the attention of Western analysts and policymakers in 2010. But in China, where the financial crisis is known as the ‘North Atlantic crisis’, getting inflation back down to 3–4% from 6–7% was the main policy priority. Higher inflation is even more damaging than normal in a society like China’s, where so many urban migrants aspire to increase their wealth and, therefore, save a high proportion of their income.

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