The God Species: How Humans Really Can Save the Planet.... Mark Lynas

Чтение книги онлайн.

СКАЧАТЬ natural selection, they are constantly changing, and all are involved in a delicate dance of physics, chemistry and biology that somehow keeps Earth in its Goldilocks state, allowing life in general to survive and flourish, just as it has done for billions of years.

      Why the Earth has become – and has remained – a habitable planet is one of the most extraordinary stories in science. Whilst Venus fried and Mars froze, Earth somehow survived enormous swings in temperature, rebounding back into balance whatever the initial cause of the perturbation. Venus suffered a runaway greenhouse effect: its oceans boiled away and most of its carbon ended up in the planet’s atmosphere as a suffocatingly heavy blanket of carbon dioxide. Mars, on the other hand, took a different trajectory. It began life warm and wet, with abundant liquid water. Yet something went wrong: its carbon dioxide ended up trapped for ever in carbonate rocks, condemning the planet to an icy future from which there could be no return.¹ The water channels and alluvial fans that cover the planet’s surface are now freeze-dried and barren, and will remain so until the end of time.

      Part of the Earth’s good fortune obviously lies in its location: it is the right distance from the sun to remain temperate and equable. But the distribution of Earthly chemicals is equally critical: our greenhouse effect is strong enough to raise the planet’s temperature by more than 30 degrees from what it would otherwise be, from –18˚C to about 15˚C today on average – perfect for abundant life – whilst keeping enough carbon locked up underground to avoid a Venusian-style runaway greenhouse. Ideologically motivated climate-change deniers may rant and obfuscate, but geology (not to mention physics) leaves no room for doubt: greenhouse gases, principally carbon dioxide (with water vapour as a reinforcing feedback), are unquestionably a planet’s main thermostat, determining the energy balance of the whole planetary system.

      This astounding 4-billion-year track record of self-regulating success makes the Earth unique certainly in the solar system and possibly the entire universe. The only plausible explanation is that self-regulation is somehow an emergent property of the system; negative feedbacks overwhelm positive ones and tend to push the Earth towards stability and balance. This concept is a central plank of systems theory, and seems to apply universally to successful complex systems from the internet to ant colonies. These systems are characterised by near-infinite complexity: all their nodes of interconnectedness cannot possibly be identified, quantified or centrally planned, yet their product as a whole tends towards balance and self-correction. The Earth that encompasses them is the most complex and bewilderingly successful system of the lot.

      One of the pioneers in understanding the critical regulatory role of life within the Earth system was the brilliant scientist and inventor James Lovelock. Lovelock’s original Gaia theory – that living organisms somehow contrive to maintain the Earth in the right conditions for life – was a stunning insight. But his idea of the Earth as being alive, perhaps as a kind of super-organism, only holds good as a metaphor. Self-regulation comes about not for the benefit of any component of the system – living or non-living – but by dint of the overall system’s long-term survival and innate adaptability.

      An important characteristic of the Earth system is that its main elements move around rather than all ending up in one place. Water, for instance, cycles through rivers, oceans, ice caps, the atmosphere and us. An H₂O molecule falling in a snowstorm on the rocky peak of Mount Kenya may have been exhaled in the dying gasps of Queen Elizabeth I: water, driven by energy, is always circulating. Nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, sodium, iron, calcium, sulphur and other elements are also perpetually on the move. Carbon is perhaps the most important cycle of all, because of the thermostatic role played by its molecular state; particularly in its gaseous form as CO₂, but also in combination with other elements, such as with hydrogen as CH₄ (methane). It was the failure of the carbon cycle that doomed Venus and Mars, yet here on Earth various feedbacks have kept the system in relative balance for billions of years – even altering the strength of the greenhouse effect to offset the sun’s increasing output of radiation over geological time.

      Over million-year timescales, the carbon cycle balances out between the weathering of rocks on land, which draws carbon dioxide out of the air, and its emission from volcanoes. Carbon is deposited in the oceans and then recycled through plate tectonics, as oceanic plates subduct under continental ones, providing more fuel for CO₂-emitting volcanoes. The process is self-correcting: if volcanoes emit too much carbon dioxide, the Earth’s atmosphere heats up, increasing weathering rates and drawing down CO₂. If carbon dioxide levels fall low enough for weathering to cease – as perhaps was the case during the early ‘snowball Earth’ episodes, when global-scale ice caps put a stop to the weathering of rocks – volcanic emissions continue uninterrupted, allowing CO₂ to build up until a stronger greenhouse effect melts the ice and allows balance to be restored. The system is stable but not in stasis: the geological record shows tremendous swings in temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations over the ages, though always within certain boundaries.

      Perhaps one of the strongest arguments against the Gaia concept is the fact that even if the planet in general remains habitable, things do sometimes go badly wrong. Over the last half-billion years since complex life began there have been five serious mass extinctions, the worst of them wiping out 95 per cent of species alive at the time. Most appear to have been linked to short-circuits in the carbon cycle, where volcanic super-eruptions led to episodes of extreme global warming that left the oceans acidic and depleted in oxygen, and the land either parched or battered by merciless storms. And yet, over millions of years, new species evolved to fill the niches vacated by extinguished ones, and some kind of balance was restored. Over the last million years, recurrent ice ages demonstrate how regular cycles can lead to dramatic swings in temperature, as orbital changes in the Earth’s motion around the sun lead to small differences in temperature, which are then amplified by carbon-cycle and ice-albedo (reflectivity) feedbacks. Our planet may be self-regulating, but it is also extraordinarily dynamic.

      GOD SPECIES OR REBEL ORGANISM?

      Life is now an important component of most of the planet’s major cycles. The majority of carbon is locked up in calcium carbonate (limestone) rocks, laid down in the oceans by corals and plankton. The appearance of photosynthesis was perhaps one of life’s most miraculous innovations, allowing microbes – and later, green plants – to use atmospheric carbon dioxide as a source of food. Water is an essential part of the process: in cellular factories called chloroplasts, plants split water into hydrogen and oxygen, combining the hydrogen with carbon from the air to form carbohydrates, and releasing oxygen as a waste product. The process opened up an opportunity for the evolution of animals, that could eat the carbohydrates as a food source and recombine them with oxygen (forming CO₂ and water), thereby generating energy and closing the loop.

      Evolution of life is a critical part of the process of planetary self-regulation, because it allows organisms to change to take advantage of new opportunities and learn from failures – evolution is self-correction in action. Just as the build-up of oxygen in the air allowed animal life to appear, so the accumulation of any waste is an opportunity for new species to evolve to take advantage of it. Evolution is very different from mere adaptability, because it allows new life-forms to appear rather than old ones to adapt, leading to much greater transformations. A species may, for example, be able to adapt to a shift in its food supply by moving, but over many millennia an entirely new species may thereby come into being, able to exploit a whole new niche in the ecosystem. Think of polar bears, likely descended from an isolated population of brown bears in an ice age, but which evolved white fur and an ice-based lifestyle to become the pre-eminent hunter of the far north.

      All this sounds comforting. The Earth, and life, will always prevail. But the self-regulating system contains a flaw, one that can seriously damage or even destroy it. This flaw is the gap in time between a perturbation and the ensuing correction: instabilities can happen very fast, whilst the correcting process of self-regulation typically takes much longer. The gap between the advent of an oxygen-rich atmosphere and the appearance СКАЧАТЬ