Россия и Европейский Союз в 2011–2014 годах. В поисках партнёрских отношений V. Том 2. М. Л. Энтин

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СКАЧАТЬ trade in energy resources has for Russia-EU relations.

      The era of extremely cheap crude is over. USA transformation into its biggest producer doesn’t change anything. Future price wars will not last more than one or two years. Crude reserves are limited. Production costs go up. Crude makes too big a contribution to climate change. It will have to be replaced. In the future with renewable resources. In the next few years – during the transitional period – with natural and, to some extent, with shale gas.

      Natural gas will gradually become exchange liquidity. Everyone will need it. Large trucks will be using gas. That is an environmentally friendly fuel. If the forecast comes true, Russian producers will find themselves in a highly advantageous position: Russia has a third of world natural gas reserves.

      Russian companies intend to use the growing demand in full. They are diversifying means of delivery. They are creating new transit corridors. They are entering new markets. First of all, Southeast Asia. By 2025–2030 the markets will have a totally different configuration.

      This is just one element of the strategy. Others include energy saving and an increase of domestic prices. Since 2009 the country has been living by a new law, which forces large consumers to save energy. So far it may be described as a dormant law – that is a consequence of the crisis. But it will start working soon.

      The long-term program of the increase of domestic prices coordinated by the government and the largest producers implies a gradual leveling of domestic and world prices. The goal is to weaken the dependence on foreign markets, to strengthen positions of domestic companies and their competitiveness, and to make operations on the domestic market as profitable as exports. There is one more imperative – to deepen the processing and to build up the degree of mechanization.

      So, if the world does not fall into another spin of economic crisis and worthy management is provided, Russia will have trump cards on its hands. From the point of view of investments in economic diversification. And, equally, from the point of view of the game on the global and regional markets.

      Russia, the Russian two-headed eagle, seems to have rather strong wings. It will spread the wings. Anyway, it can. And long distances will be a child’s play to it.

      Can «Hoggies” Fly?

      There are more questions now to another wonderful political creature from the animal world – the European Union. The protracted crisis of sovereign debts, the downgraded rating of a large group of member states and the slow adoption of political and economic decisions unveiled all weaknesses of the European project.

      An increasing number of experts, particularly in Southeast Asia, have doubts whether the EU can continue to fly high. The PIGS abbreviation, which sounds the same in Russian and in English, is a perfect illustration to these doubts.

      It is beneficial to Russia that the Union can. The EU is our most reliable partner. It is a sales market and a supplier of a broad range of goods. It is a leading investor of the Russian economy. And not only.

      Russia is also Europe. It is a part of our common culture. Our common history. We are impressed with the EU socioeconomic development model. Its collapse must not be allowed. That would be catastrophic for entire Europe. Not only for the EU.

      It would be appropriate to recall in this context that the economic growth rates in Russia may be much smaller than in other BRICS countries. But they are still much higher than in the EU. The growth was approximately 4.6 %-4.8 % in 2011. The EU is headed towards recession. So humiliating opinions of Russian events and deliberately tendentious forecasts can hardly do good to the EU and its member states.

      Both Russia and the EU would have gained a lot from the authentic strategic partnership. In all spheres. Foreign policy. Economy. Home security. Science, culture, education. The partnership would have boosted competitiveness of the sides.

      In the multi-vector foreign policy of Russia the EU holds a very important place. It is almost central. Without any damage done to Russia’s relations with Eurasian Union countries, the United States, China, and India and so on.

      However, the strategic partnership requires mutual respect. Mutual account of interests. Equality. If that is done, Russia and the European Union will have a much brighter future.

      The flight will be much steadier then.

      Unpretentious Discussion

      Participants in the discussion, which followed the report presentation and main speeches, immediately broke into three camps. The first comprised ingrained skeptics and inveterate fans of alarmist forecasts.

      In their view, the critical attitude to Russia is more than justified. Especially as the potential of Putin’s political young growth has already been spent. The political and economic course held through the most of the past decade led the country into an impasse. Russia has another term of stagnation, manual control, immobilism and uncertainty in store.

      To be objective, we must say that they made a similar dress-down analysis of the Western world and globalism at large. They said the Russian situation could be described in stagnation terms while the Western world was simply going to ruin.

      The appearance of global markets, global economy and global society had strictly negative consequences. Such as the uncurbed spreading of crisis phenomena, the declined controllability of world processes and the chaotic international relations.

      Hence, Russian problems should be viewed comparatively rather than absolutely. The opinions must be kept in mind while building the relationship.

      The second camp united staunch optimists and idealists. They attacked the European Union instead of Russia or the BRICS.

      The main thesis is that European integration has partly spent its potential. It is out of breath. It has encountered insurmountable obstacles. At least, that is so in the short-term prospect. Because of the sovereign debt crisis, the slowing economic growth and the emerging erosion of the foundation of social peace. Probably, also because of numerous mistakes in the elaboration and fulfillment of political decisions.

      A key one is the underestimation of the potential of Russia and the BRICS and the contempt for the rest. The erroneous guidelines must be changed. Preferably quickly.

      The most representative group was formed by realists and pragmatics. The same as the others, they stated the deepening anarchization of the modern world. They pointed to the qualitatively new problems faced by the EU and the Western world as a whole.

      Besides, they gave a balanced analysis of the development dynamics of the Russian Federation. They accentuated the colossal unclaimed potential of the Russia-EU partnership. They called for developing the relations for the benefit of both sides.

      We would side with this approach. True, we should put the emphasis on factors which unite instead of separate us. Then we will do much better. In the sweeping modernization. And in the resolution of global problems.

      We may not succeed immediately. But we have to begin at some point. There are more prerequisites for that now than ever. It is simply necessary to see them. And to have a wish.

      Then our “Animal Planet” will be more humane. There СКАЧАТЬ