Introduction to Ore-Forming Processes. Laurence Robb

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Figure 5 Geological time scale after the International Commission on Stratigraphy (http://www.stratigraphy.org/index.php/ics-chart-timescale). Also shown are the ages of the various deposits and metallogenic provinces mentioned in the book.

Natural Resources, Sustainability, and the Environment

      One of the major issues that characterized social and economic development toward the end of the twentieth century revolved around the widespread acceptance that the Earth's natural resources are finite, and that their exploitation should be carried out in a manner that will not detrimentally affect future generations. The concept of “sustainable development” in terms of the exploitation of mineral occurrences implies that current social and economic practice should endeavor not to deplete natural resources to the point where the needs of the future cannot be met. This would seem to be an impossible goal given the unprecedented population growth over the past century and the fact that many commodities may become depleted within the next 100 years. The challenge for commodity supply over the next century is a multifaceted one and will require a better understanding of the Earth system, improved incentives to promote more efficient recycling of existing resources, and the means to find alternative sources for commodities that are in danger of depletion.

There has been a dramatic rise in global population over the past 150 years. The number of humans on Earth has risen from one billion in 1830 to over seven billion at the start of the twenty‐first century. Most predictions suggest that the populations of most countries will start to level off over the next 30 years and that global numbers will stabilize at around eleven billion people by the end of the twenty‐first century. Societies in the next 100 years are, nevertheless, facing a scenario in which the demand for, and utilization of, natural resources continues to increase, and certain commodities might well become depleted in this interval. Production trends for commodities such as oil, bauxite, copper, and gold (Figure 6) confirm that demand for resources reflects population growth and is likely to continue to do so over the next few decades. World oil production increased precipitously until the late 1970s, but since then a variety of political and economic factors have contributed to moderating demand (Figure 6a), thereby ensuring a longer‐term reserve base. A similar leveling of production is evident for bauxite (Figure 6b) but such a trend is not yet evident for the precious metals such as gold or platinum. For some commodities, such as copper (Figure 6c), the world reserve base is also leveling off, a feature that in part also reflects fewer new and large discoveries. Critical shortages of most natural commodities are not likely to present a problem during the early part of the twenty‐first century (Einaudi 2000), but this situation will deteriorate unless strategies for sustainability are put into place immediately. Another area of concern is related to those strategically important metals for which the security of supply has become an issue. Many metals, including the rare earth elements, tungsten, the platinum group elements, tantalum and niobium, have been cited as “critical metals” because their supply has been affected, not by naturally diminishing resource bases, but by socio‐economic and political factors.