Never Let A Serious Crisis Go to Waste. Philip Mirowski

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СКАЧАТЬ goes with a judgment that most of the concerns* that are commonly raised against simple-minded versions of economics can be addressed without throwing out the whole system and starting from scratch. If you don’t believe in the perfectly rational economic man (sic), there’s a huge body of work on behavioral economics, bounded rationality, altruism and so on. If you don’t like simplistic competitive models, the shelves are groaning with books on strategic behavior and game theory.

      I am sure Quiggin didn’t intend it, but this came too perilously close to Margaret Thatcher’s “There Is No Alternative” for comfort. These notions that serious intellectual work outside well-worn paths sanctioned by the established disciplines has often proven ineffectual when it comes to political rough and tumble; that every valid critique of neoclassical economics has already been made by someone else long ago and, furthermore, has been adequately absorbed by the cognoscenti; that you must voluntarily shackle yourself to the tropes of the modern economic orthodoxy if you have pretentions to be taken seriously; and that every doctrine should be judged in a cod–John Dewey fashion by its immediate proximate uses—all constitute major impediments to understanding how the left has failed in the current crisis.

      Quiggin’s book illustrates the disturbing conundrum of how difficult it can be for him, or indeed any other critic internal to the orthodoxy, to certify that he is not already infected with the zombie virus (a standard conundrum in zombie movies), and therefore deserves some culpability for their recrudescence. The first rule of nightmares is that sniping at zombies does not often stem their tide. For instance, Quiggin argues at one point, “The appealing idea that macroeconomics should develop naturally from standard microeconomic foundations has turned out to be a distraction”; but it is a distraction he himself cannot resist, relying as he does on neoclassical notions of “market failure,” natural monopoly, absence of Arrow-Debreu contingent commodities, information as a public good, and conventional definitions of risk to motivate his version of “real-world” economics. At another juncture, he admits that a relevant macroeconomics “is not simply a matter of modifying the way we model individual behavior,” but as he repeatedly conjures “behavioral economics” as the font of deliverance, he has nothing else on offer. In chapter 5 we suggest that behavioral economics has been a sink of despair. Quiggin frequently wishes for a “newer Keynesianism,” but has to concede that the neoclassical synthesis was “not particularly satisfactory at a theoretical level, but it had the huge practical merit that it worked.”²⁸ Time and again he signals that he is aware that neoclassical economics frustrates and confounds intellectual deliverance from the morass of zombie ideas; but nevertheless, he cannot seriously countenance the possibility that the solution to logical incoherence involves its repudiation. The result is that Quiggin repeatedly contradicts himself, and perforce treats it as a virtue. This is itself a pungent symptom of zombie thought, and is widely found across the board of the “legitimate left” of the economics profession, from Paul Krugman to Joseph Stiglitz to Adair Turner to Amartya Sen to Simon Johnson. Paul Krugman, feeling secure in his status, has conveniently confessed to the derangement:

      The brand of economics I use in my daily work—the brand that I still consider by far the most reasonable approach out there—was largely established by Paul Samuelson back in 1948, when he published the first edition of his classic textbook. It’s an approach that combines the grand tradition of microeconomics, with its emphasis on how the invisible hand leads to generally desirable outcomes, with Keynesian macroeconomics, which emphasizes the way the economy can develop magneto trouble, requiring policy intervention. In the Samuelsonian synthesis, one must count on the government to ensure more or less full employment; only once that can be taken as given do the usual virtues of free markets come to the fore.

      It’s a deeply reasonable approach—but it’s also intellectually unstable. For it requires some strategic inconsistency in how you think about the economy. When you’re doing micro, you assume rational individuals and rapidly clearing markets; when you’re doing macro, frictions and ad hoc behavioral assumptions are essential. So what? Inconsistency in the pursuit of useful guidance is no vice.²⁹

      I do not wish to suggest one should never, ever simultaneously entertain A and Not-A. There is a grain of truth to this: quantum mechanics has been deemed inconsistent with classical mechanics and macro-scale theories such as relativity at various points in its history; it is possible for a science like physics to operate for a while with conceptual schizophrenia. Indeed, sometimes it may be a necessary prerequisite to come to understand the full nature and character of the submerged contradiction. However, the historical divergence comes with neoclassical economics in that most other sciences do not then banish their members who point out the inconsistencies and worry over their meaning. Nor do they simply expel the proponents of one side of the theory in order to maintain doctrinal purity, as happened with the rational-expectations movement and its epigones.

      During the Cold War, the economics profession was growing more exclusive, but was not completely intransigently intolerant of rival doctrines, for reasons of ideological appearances. For instance, evidence from the Paul Samuelson archives suggests he really did nominate Joan Robinson for the Bank of Sweden economics “Nobel.”³⁰ Things really ratcheted upward in terms of imposed conformity only after the Fall of the Wall, for equally obvious political reasons. However, the apogee of denial of divergent thought occurred during the Great Bubble. A very strange literature sprang up in the early 2000s, asserting that there was no such thing as neoclassical economics anymore, in the sense that the legitimate orthodox economics profession had explored every possible analytical divergence from the rigid Walrasian general equilibrium model of days past, and someone, somewhere, sometime had built formal models addressing the previously heterodox concerns.³¹ Rationality? Who needs it? Equilibrium? We can do without it! Maximization? We can get around it! Individual greed? Just read Amartya Sen! Supply and demand? That just gets fed to people insufficiently mathematical to grasp the latest interpretation of the Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu theorems! Bubbles? We got ’em, hot, foamy, and rational. Complexity? How much can you handle? And so on and so on. Point to anything you may not find salubrious, and we’ve got a “not-so-new” model (and maybe a bridge) to sell ya. And yet, all this putative open-minded tolerance and catholic heedfulness was accompanied by bald attack on and excommunication of any last vestige of heterodox economics in top-ranked universities throughout the world, and the redoubled exclusivity of top-ranked economics journals. History of doctrines was banished, and scattered ghettos of heterodox thought were unceremoniously leveled. Even European holdouts were vigorously routed in their national contexts. For those on the front lines, it was wrenching to witness this contradiction up close.

      I believe it was no accident that all manner of otherwise tolerant eclectic people started claiming that heterodoxy in economics was finally a thing of the past precisely during the Bubble run-up to 2007; perhaps we can now appreciate it as the twin offspring of the neoliberal herald of the “end of history,” akin to the “Great Moderation,” only now in the precincts of intellectual endeavor. The profession had been rendered starkly more homogeneous in outlook and training, not least through graduate recruitment of tyros with no undergraduate degree in economics, which had significant consequences for the bumbling responses of economists when the crisis hit. Training and backgrounds had grown so narrow that the newer generation had no idea there had ever been anything alien to their tradition, and hence their impressions of intellectual freedom were simple artifacts of their ignorance. Things had gotten so bad that some heterodox holdouts felt they had fallen victim to an elaborate fraud themselves: “There is nothing more frustrating for critics of neoclassical economics than the argument that neoclassical economics is a figment of their imagination.”³² No purge is more insidious than that which comes cladded with plausible deniability.

      There are many different ways to understand how Big Brother managed to accrue a reputation for political neutrality and an open mind; and this book is an attempt to look at that phenomenon from a number of different perspectives. It is a bit more of a stretch to see how that reputation has been maintained (albeit under persistent duress) throughout the drubbing that the economics profession has suffered in the aftermath to the СКАЧАТЬ