Convention Center Follies. Heywood T. Sanders

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СКАЧАТЬ convention attendee direct spending from the current $16,724,000 to $45,566,000 each year.¹⁷

      It was impossible for the CSL consultants to ignore the impact of the 2007–2008 recession on the convention business when, in November 2009, they completed a “Strategic Development Plan” for the Boston Convention & Exhibition Center. As they had observed for Oklahoma City, they noted “several conditions that are negatively impacting convention and tradeshow activity nationally.” But that impact was taking place in a presumed historical context of exhibit space demand tied to the state of the national economy. The historic growth index chart of the “200” from earlier reports was not part of the Boston report. Instead, it included a graph showing “Annual Changes to Large Convention & Tradeshow Demand and S&P 500 Earnings Per Share,” reflecting solely space use data from the annual Tradeshow “200,” rather than attendance, through 2008. CSL could thus go on to conclude, “If projections of future economic growth are generally accurate, it is likely that although the convention and tradeshow industry experienced a downturn through 2009, recovery in demand will take place towards the end of 2010 or early in 2011.” That expectation of certain demand recovery was apparently sufficient for CSL to recommend the development of a second headquarters hotel for the BCEC, more ballroom space, added meeting room space, a new auditorium, and the potential addition of up to 400,000 square feet of exhibit hall space.¹⁸

      CSL’s belief in the recovery of the convention business, and its focus on “Large Convention & Tradeshow Demand” based on the presumed historic performance of the “200” events also extended into 2010, exemplified by a March 22, 2010, study of potential convention center development for Boise, Idaho. The Boise analysis included the same graphic of demand trends and earnings per share included in the Boston report, and concluded, “if projections of future economic growth are generally accurate, it is likely that the convention and tradeshow industry will continue to experience a downturn into 2010, with a potential recovery in demand taking place sometime late in 2010.” CSL could thus recommend that Boise develop 50,000 square feet of new exhibit space, while noting an attached or adjacent headquarter hotel as an “important amenity” to include in center development and funding plans.¹⁹

      The CSL firm’s optimism about the long-term future of the convention business continued through 2010. In its study of demand for an expanded and improved Henry B. Gonzalez Convention Center in San Antonio, dated December 1, 2010, the CSL consultants did note, “If projections of future economic growth are generally accurate, and given the continued viability of the convention model as a means of conducting key elements of a successful business, it is likely that while the convention industry will continue to experience a downturn into 2010, a potential recovery in demand is likely to take place sometime in 2011.” But the report then added, “We continue to believe that demand for convention and tradeshow space is tied to the overall health of the economy, and that demand levels will rebound by 2011.” With that outlook, CSL recommended an expansion of 100,000 square feet.²⁰

      The CSL firm’s positive outlook on the future of the national convention and tradeshow business extended through 2011. In an analysis of the “proposed LACC [Los Angeles Convention Center] enhancement project”—actually a new football stadium to be developed as part of the city’s convention center complex—CSL forecast that the city would gain a “significant increase” in major conventions and tradeshows, amounting to about five each year, boosting annual “non-local attendee days” from a five-year average of 331,190 to a forecast 522,000. And the firm did offer city officials the conclusion that “Given the stable condition of convention and tradeshow industry demand projected into the future, the large majority of additional LACC citywide events will have to result from attracting events that otherwise would have booked into centers in competitive markets such as San Diego, Anaheim, Phoenix, San Francisco and Denver.” But even with that competitive reality, Los Angeles presumably stood to see more convention business.²¹

      The passage of another year of limited national economic recovery apparently did little to alter CSL’s outlook on future convention demand. When the CSL consultants presented their December 2010 assessment for San Antonio, they had argued, “demand levels will rebound by 2011.” When a year later CSL completed a broader report on San Antonio tourism in November 2011, it concluded “If projections of future economic growth are generally accurate (even at modest levels), and given the continued viability of the convention model as a means of conducting key elements of a successful business, it is likely that while [sic] the convention industry will continue to stabilize, with slight increases through the remainder of 2011.”²²

      From the 1990s to 2011, through economic growth and recession, for cities as large and well known as New York and New Orleans or as modestly sized as Jackson and Boise, the CSL International consultants (at both Coopers & Lybrand and CSL) emphasized the persistence and predictability of convention and tradeshow industry growth. Over and over, the firm relied upon data from Tradeshow Week, most commonly from the “200” largest events and expressed either as annual percentage changes or as index numbers, to make the case that there was room for more exhibit space, across a broad swath of communities, that would inevitably lead to more conventions and tradeshows, with more attendees and greater “economic impact” from visitor spending. Even in the face of dramatic economic change after the 2007–2008 recession, the firm continued to promise that recovery was just around the corner. And the persistent forecast of growth also characterized the work of other convention center consultants.²³

      From the early 1990s to about 2000, the convention center consulting practice at PriceWaterhouse (subsequently PriceWaterhouseCoopers) was directed by David C. Petersen. Petersen had effectively founded the convention center practice at Laventhol & Horwath in 1981, which he headed until the firm’s bankruptcy in 1990. At PriceWaterhouse, he directed studies for a long list of communities and clients, including Boston, San Diego, Cincinnati, and Atlanta. Those cities too heard a story (much as Laventhol clients had earlier) of historical growth in convention center demand based on the Tradeshow Week “200,” and the forecast that growth “is expected to continue in future years.”²⁴

      Reviewing the market prospects for an expanded convention center for Atlanta’s Georgia World Congress Center in early 1993, PriceWaterhouse focused on the historical pattern of growth for the nation’s largest conventions and tradeshows, the Tradeshow “200.” The PriceWaterhouse consultants noted, “Growth for the country’s largest 200 trade shows, all of which require more than 225,000 gross square feet, has been similar to growth for the entire U.S. trade show industry”—a figure the consultants put at 6 to 8 percent annually. The demand assessment went on, “Research shows that growth in demand for convention center exhibition space will continue … there is no persuasive evidence that exhibition space demand growth for either trade shows or conventions will abate in the foreseeable future.” Looking ahead, PriceWaterhouse saw growth in the future, for fiscal years 1992 to 2001, estimating demand for space increasing “at approximately 7 percent compounded annually.”²⁵

      David Petersen and his PriceWaterhouse colleagues returned to Atlanta in 1996, with a second market analysis of an expansion of the Georgia World Congress Center. Once again, they focused on the growth of the overall industry, reviewing “the growth trends of the 200 largest trade association events in the U.S, ‘The Tradeshow 200’.” They described trends in both exhibit space use and attendance as “sporadic,” while going on to note that “the last three years have seen a recovery in both of these factors.” They finally concluded in a “summary of key factors,” “Demand, measured in terms of net exhibition space occupied, has grown at approximately 5 percent per year, on average, for the 200 largest trade association events in the U.S.” They then used the assumption of 5 percent annual growth in exhibit space use to argue, “An additional 700,000 square feet of exhibition space would provide sufficient space for these events to be held alone in the Center, or simultaneously with larger events.”²⁶

      The PriceWaterhouse consulting team (merged and renamed PriceWaterhouseCoopers and led by Robert СКАЧАТЬ