Название: Financial Risk Management For Dummies
Автор: Aaron Brown
Издательство: John Wiley & Sons Limited
Жанр: Зарубежная образовательная литература
Серия: For Dummies
isbn: 9781119082194
isbn:
An analogy putting you as the detective in a murder mystery may make this difference clearer: Before you know whodunit, you’re suspicious of everyone, and you’re uncertain about events because the testimony of the murderer is likely false. Given what you know so far, you think you have a 66 per cent chance the duke did it and a 34 per cent chance the butler did it. If you knew it was the duke, you would lock up the duke; if you knew it was the butler, you would lock up the butler; but given your uncertainty you lock up no one. You don’t lock the duke up 16 hours in the day and the butler 8 hours. The point is that the actions you take under uncertainty are not the weighted average of the actions you take under each of the possible resolutions. The state of uncertainty is fundamentally different from any of the possible resolved states.
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