Stock Trader's Almanac 2018. Jeffrey A. Hirsch

Чтение книги онлайн.

      One-year seasonal pattern charts for Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 appear on pages 171 to 173. There are three charts each for Dow and S&P 500 spanning our entire database starting in 1901 and one each for the younger indices. As 2018 is a midterm election year, each chart contains typical midterm year performance compared to all years.

      The Notable Events on page 6 provides a handy list of major events of the past year that can be helpful when evaluating things that may have moved the market. Over the past few years, our research had been restructured to flow better with the rhythm of the year. This has also allowed us more room for added data. Again, we have included historical data on the Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices. The Russell 2K is an excellent proxy for small and mid-caps, which we have used over the years, and the Russell 1K provides a broader view of large caps. Annual highs and lows for all five indices covered in the Almanac appear on pages 149–151, and we've tweaked the Best & Worst section.

      In order to cram in all this material, some of our Record Keeping section was cut. We have converted many of these paper forms into computer spreadsheets for our own internal use. As a service to our faithful readers, we are making these forms available at our website, www.stocktradersalmanac.com.

      Midterm election years have been the second worst year of the four-year cycle, while eighth years of decades have been the second best, so 2018 promises to be laced with crosscurrents. The last nine eighth years of decades appear on page 24. You can find all the market charts of midterm elections since the Depression on page 26, “Midterm Election Years: Where Bottom Pickers Find Paradise” on page 30, “Prosperity More Than Peace Determines the Outcome of Midterm Congressional Races” on page 32, and “Why a 50 % Dow Gain Is Possible From Its 2018 Low to Its 2019 High” on page 34.

      Our “Super Boom Update: 2010 Forecast On Track for Dow 38820 By 2025” appears on page 40, followed by “Culturally Enabling Paradigm Shifting Technologies Poised to Fuel the Next Super Boom” on page 42. For the first time in the Almanac we show how “Summer Market Volume Doldrums Drives Worst Six Months” on page 42.

      On page 76 is our Best Investment Book of the Year, Relationship Investing: Stock Market Therapy for Your Money, by Jeffrey S. Weiss, CMT (Skyhorse Publishing). Other top books are listed on page 116. Sector seasonalities include several consistent shorting opportunities and appear on pages 92–96.

      We are constantly searching for new insights and nuances about the stock market and welcome any suggestions from our readers.

      Have a healthy and prosperous 2018!

      NOTABLE EVENTS

      2018 OUTLOOK

      It's like déjà vu all over again. A new president is getting challenged from all angles on many fronts and having a difficult time implementing his agenda. However, for the first half of 2017 the market has rallied smartly on the promise of change, tax and healthcare reform, deregulation and a massive infrastructure buildout – but mostly on the fact that election uncertainty is over and nothing is happening in DC. So far little has been accomplished and although new highs have just been logged as of this writing, little ground has been gained since March 1.