Capital Ideas. Bernstein Peter L.

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СКАЧАТЬ style="font-size:15px;">      Fisher had won worldwide reputation as a theoretician for his work on interest rates and statistical innovations. Despite his well-justified fame, his attempts to forecast the stock market had given him a different kind of reputation. On October 15, 1929, just a few days before the Great Crash, he made what John Kenneth Galbraith refers to as his “immortal estimate” that “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently higher plateau.” That was not bad enough. Fisher went on to say, “I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher than it is today within a few months.” On October 21, the day Hamilton published “The Turn in the Tide,” Fisher welcomed the ominously weakening market, describing it as “a shaking out of the lunatic fringe.”44 Fisher subsequently lost his substantial fortune, which had been acquired partly from a wealthy wife and partly from an innovative filing system he had developed and marketed.

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      1

      Some, but by no means all, of this money has come back into the stock market through individual purchases of mutual funds. Distaste for the difficulties individual investors encounter when they try to manage direct holdings of common stocks explains the dramatic growth of the mutual fund business over the past fifteen years.

      2

      Institutions yield sluggishly to technology. The Hong Kong exchange has a new trading floor filled with rows of people sitting at computing desks. With everything being done by the computer, a “trading floor” is no longer needed. But there always has been a trading floor, so there still is.

      3

      Hansell (1989).

1

Some, but by no means all, of this money has come back into the stock market through individual purchases of mutual funds. Distaste for the difficulties individual investors encounter when they try to manage direct holdings of common stocks explains the dramatic growth of the mutual fund business over the past fifteen years.

2

Institutions yield sluggishly to technology. The Hong Kong exchange has a new trading floor filled with rows of people sitting at computing desks. With everything being done by the computer, a “trading floor” is no longer needed. But there always has been a trading floor, so there still is.

3

Hansell (1989).

4

I am grateful to McCloskey (1992) for the quotation from Dante.

5

Wien (1990).

6

Institutional Investor staff (1977).

7

The editor of this book read the term in a journal article of the 1970s.

8

Vosti (1990).

9

Treynor, PC&I.

10

Judson (1979).

11

Gould (1991).

12

Vertin (1974).

13

Cootner (1964).

14

Bachelier (1900).

15

Bachelier (1900).

16

Bachelier (1900).

17

All the quotes in this paragraph are from Mandelbrot (1987).

18

Bachelier (1900).

19

Bachelier (1900).

20

Bachelier (1900).

21

Bachelier (1900).

22

Bachelier (1900).

23

Bachelier (1900).

24

Bachelier (1900).

25

Fama, PC&I.

26

Bachelier (1900).

27

Wallis (1981).

28

Wallis (1981).

29

Wallis (1981).

30

Samuelson, PC&I.

31

Samuelson (1973).

32

Wendt (1982).

33

Wendt (1982).

34

Wendt (1982).

35

Wendt (1982).

36

Wendt (1982).

37

Today, the industrials include all stocks that are not utilities, railroads, airlines, or truckers.

38

Kopcke (1989).

39

Bloom (1974).

40

Bloom (1974).

41

Bloom (1974).

42

Rhea (1935).

43

Clapesattle (1984).

44

All quotes in this paragraph from Galbraith (1972).