The President / The Prince. Due Machiavelli
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СКАЧАТЬ concept of stability too received new sense today. Earlier the situation was considered stable if in the foreseeable future of anything in it does not change or changes will be slightly noticeable: weak actions caused a weak response. In the XXI century stability is a special type of long accident when the country is on the verge of chaos, but this side does not pass. Let's follow the same example with the surfer. His movement on a wave is a continuous falling; but he, changing an inclination, the provision of the governing on a crest, does so that the wave he makes up for all the time and it appears under it. This is also an example of modern stability. If the athlete takes a little aside, will slow down or will be accelerated concerning a wave crest, accident will be inevitable, and accident fast and final. Therefore time of low-active decrepit rulers at a wheel of the state left (unfortunately, as for the state the most serious test is a young initiative leader), now time of those who can head constantly the state ship downwind of changes and keep most.

      The world is ruled by the young – when they grow old.

George Bernard Shaw

      What changed for the last centuries, what forced to consider as the main force in the state not will of the sovereign disposing of destiny of citizens, and the certain wave forcing the ruler to balance in attempt to keep on a crest? And what it for a wave, what it for the stream subordinating to himself the power?

      Let's look at changes which happened in societies for the last century. In the XIX century represented that in the future working hours will be shortened till three-five o'clock, physical activity will decrease by the person, there will be more time for free creativity. Passed one and a half eyelids: achievements of a civilization led to labor productivity growth, to reduction of the working day small (on average), to reduction of hard physical work – and to the enormous growth of the competition, mental load of all segments of the population. People began to live better financially, but did not begin to live easier. In a present civilization of people if he wants to live and consume the benefits, has to refuse tranquility. Because the more society gets, the more it requires[2].

      Whether there are models on which it would be possible to study consequences of such evolution? Yes, there is a mathematical Theory of self-organized criticality; it describes the system which is constantly in a condition of crisis, in result of that there is a seeming stability at continuous accident, it is possible to say – sliding on a chaos edge. The theory of self-organized criticality describes, in particulars, a situation when the condition of rest interrupts flashes of high activity. If to apply these provisions to development of a world civilization, crises, social accidents are an obligatory price for the accelerated development of economy, for material benefits, finally for big life expectancy.

      Modern production demands from various economies of a adjusting to a uniform world rhythm; for this purpose there is a set of the international funds, banks, associations, the WTO including. Such production cooperation in scales of the whole world – both a consequence, and the motor of world association, general sliding on a chaos edge.

      Along with acceleration of life there is other process – distinctions between the states, the countries, public groups are washed away. At the beginning of the last century different social classes so differed in education level that hardly understood each other, speaking one language. Also at all outlooks on life at the official who looked for did not coincide, than to take free time, and from the worker who worked 14-hour labor change. In addition, the peasant from a deaf small village, getting to the capital European city, had the stress reaching shock level.

      Presently new computers, blockbusters, news of the countries – world leaders – almost at the same time reach both Paris, and Kuala Lumpur. Acceleration of development of a civilization is followed by averaging, bigger similarity of the societies making it. Economically and politically the world turns from meeting of various unlike countries into something like "the United States of the World", states-governments of the same type. In this new world association everyone acts for himself, and nobody is going to help the poor "states" to be built in it. Of course, there are interstate unions, but, as a rule, the equal enter into them. Thus the experience of life, survival, traditions acquired in this or that country in former time play the lesser role, at best become in the new world ethnic addition.

      Our civilization is more and more uniform therefore development of the different countries and, respectively, action of presidents is not chaotic, they remind the movement of cars in rush hour on the street without marking and traffic lights rather. Boor’s drivers on enormous jeeps cut easy mini cars, mopeds keep behind if you wish to survive. In such auto-stream it is impossible to twist sharply a wheel. It is impossible to brake sharply, and at the same time going ahead will not allow to be accelerated. A certain stream – a mainstream of the general movement – is created.

      The people will allow a lot of things and a lot of things they will forgive to the ruler if they feel stability in the country, including political, will feel that it moves with a good speed in the general race and even leaves behind other countries. For ordinary citizens it means a high standard of living, wider choice of opportunities of self-realization, positive prospects on the future for himself and children. As the rule, people are ready to suffer some inconveniences while the ruler overtakes or cuts ahead or nearby going "cars" if only it was succeeded to take more convenient and more advanced place in the general stream.

      Perhaps, of course, that this stream attracts us in anywhere that in some decades or even years all of us will be covered by so strong world crisis that the civilization in the development will make a peculiar loop. It already was in the IV century of our era when, after heights of the Greek-Roman civilization, Europe on one thousand years plunged into the Middle Ages. Perhaps. However, the history shows that human society constantly self-organizes and finds way out of seemingly desperate situations. As a rule, everything somehow is arranged, as a last resort, crises and wars free the road for further races. If there's an abyss in front of you, very many people will fall down there, and it is doubtful that some president will be responsible for the world accident. Nevertheless, here tactical lag in current races on a survival does not escape punishment to none of those who is in power.

      Our world reached a critical stage. Children don't obey the parents anymore. Probably, the end of the world is already not really far away.

inscription of the XII century BC, Ancient Egypt

      Need to the ruler in the activity was important to correspond to a vector of development of society and in antiquity, sometimes it was expressed even more accurately, than presently. Genghis Khan, being the dull commander, it was crushed in the first big fight with the joint army Mongolian teyps[3]. But surprise: winners – Uruds and Manguds, the best soldiers of the steppe, – came over to the his side right after defeat. Than it was caused – mass insanity or splash in philanthropy to lost? No, they passed from the one that won fight, but the fateful breeding steppe to a new order. By the end of the XII century, in the conditions of a tribal system, tens of thousands of families of nomads appeared out of the stagnated teyps, without the rights for a cattle pasture, without the rights for the war. In Genghis Khan's army state there were already other relations: all were equal before the head, all could take production on accurate, uniform conditions. For Mongols there were clear prospects of the new power. As a result, Genghis Khan had both right troops, and talented commanders.

      So, actions of all citizens of this or that country, developing, do not counterbalance each other, and create the general direction of development. It is influenced also by a total vector of development of other people, all our civilization. It is impossible to speak about absolutely independent way for the certain country already. The state will be able to sustain race in the general stream when and if the Supreme power provides successful development of the country and directs this development to a civilization mainstream. Let's call this double condition the First law of governing.

СКАЧАТЬ

<p>2</p>

It is possible that such state of affairs is a consequence of system of capitalism in which basis continuous growth of the capital and impetuous growth of consumption are put. Perhaps, on the contrary, capitalism still exists as best of all corresponds only to the acceptable way of existence of a civilization – on a production limit, on a consumption limit, on a limit of environmental pollution, on a limit of load of mentality.

<p>3</p>

Then the end would come to him, but his opponents adhered to the old, tribal relations. For them the enemy was concept personal, but not public or state so captivated spared. Genghis Khan did not spare anybody. Natural cruelty coincided with requirements of new political association.