The Black Swan Problem. Håkan Jankensgård
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Название: The Black Swan Problem
Автор: Håkan Jankensgård
Издательство: John Wiley & Sons Limited
Жанр: Ценные бумаги, инвестиции
isbn: 9781119868163
isbn:
If preppers can be accused of having overactive imaginations, perhaps that makes up for the deficiency that the rest of us consistently display in this area. In fact, preppers could be rated the finest Black Swan spotters out there. There are levels to this, and they have explored remote and disastrous possibilities to a degree that the average person is not even close to. Given their orientation, they are not constrained by the need to conform or any stigma that may come from expressing unorthodox views. Instead, they revel in it. Consequently, they have taken the process of turning ‘unknown unknowns’ into ‘known unknowns’ as far as you reasonably could. If they have turned every stone in search of what could trigger an upheaval, why not see what they have come up with? In Table 1.1 I have listed, for future reference, all the extreme events brought up by the preppers interviewed in Garrett's book.
A recurring theme in the prepper world‐view is that many of the events in Table 1.1 will play out in an interlinked sequence. In the parlance, there will be ‘ripple effects’ where various parts of the system fall apart like domino bricks. I have organized the list loosely from meta‐events that trigger a shock to the system, down to some of the societal consequences that could follow. There is no particular ordering implied here. Things further down the list could of course happen for reasons unrelated to those higher up, and the top entry could take us directly to the last, and so on (and government collapse could easily be the precipitating factor for nuclear havoc!). The permutations are endless. The point to be made is simply that misfortune rarely comes alone. When it hits the fan, as preppers like to say, things could quickly be going wrong on multiple fronts. It has long been known that risks are not independent of each other, and that we have to take these tendencies to co‐vary this into account when designing risk management strategies. As per the preppers, the same appears to be true in the tail of things.
TABLE 1.1 The prepper's list
| Nuclear war Nuclear terror Pandemics Synthetic biotech (engineered pandemic by rogue nation/scientist) Asteroid impact Electro‐magnetic pulse from sun (will ‘fry’ all electronics) Man‐made electro‐magnetic impulse (ditto) Mega volcano eruptions Run‐away technology (a bit vaguely) Artificial intelligence turning hostile Hurricanes and floodings and wildfires Sea‐levels rising (by 2040 Florida will be sea‐floor according to one prepper) Desertification (by 2040 Europe will be Saharan, same source) Blackout of electric grids Collapsing eco‐systems Crop failures Cessation of global trade networks Hyperinflation Collapse of paper currency Financial collapse Government collapse World without rule of law |
NOTES
1 1 The Black Swan criterion where the 9/11 attack might falter is the ex‐post explanation part. Black Swans are supposed to make total sense after the fact, once our brain gets to work connecting the dots, which ends up giving it an air of inevitability. At least I struggle to connect some of those dots. Of course, we now know there are Islamic warriors engaged in a cosmic war that ends either in their destruction or in that of their enemies. However, that they would choose that means of meting out their punishment, and that it could be pulled off, remains unfathomable to this day.
2 2 Bernstein, P. L., 1996. Against the Gods: The remarkable story of risk. John Wiley & Sons: New York.
3 3 Frank Knight (1921) first made this distinction and referred to known odds as ‘risk’. This epithet is unfortunate and will not be adhered to in order to avoid unnecessary confusion. In the present book, risk is construed of as the value of a random variable on which our well‐being depends (such as corporate performance) falling below some aspirational or critical level (such as the level needed for debt servicing). Risk is thus a function of uncertainty, but has nothing to do with whether odds are known a priori or not. Knight, F. H., 1921. Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Hart, Schaffner & Marx: New York, NY.
4 4 I leave out a consideration of particles at the subatomic level, which, according to important theories in physics, are governed by pure randomness. This randomness, say the same theories, can be described in precise, mathematical terms (i.e. the odds can be known).
5 5 In Taleb's terminology, wild uncertainty is found in a place called Extremistan, whereas benign uncertainty harbours in Mediocristan (Taleb, 2007, p. 35).
6 6 www.griddy.com, accessed 10 July 2021.
7 7 Some retail customers had opted out of the standard fixed‐rate utility plans and instead bought their electricity from businesses that passed wholesale prices on to them directly. Some of these customers racked up electricity bills in the range of $8,000–10,000 in a matter of days (Winter storm fallout sends Texas power firm Griddy into Bankruptcy. Financial Times, 15 March 2021).
8 8 Taleb, N. N., 2012. Antifragile: Things that gain from disorder. Random House: New York.
9 9 Episode #1564 of the Joe Rogan Experience. Alter is referring to the claim made by some, mostly the young, that they would rather have a finger broken than their phone smashed.
10 10 For this quote, and other useful perspectives, read the article “Everything You Think You Know About the Collapse of the Soviet Union Is Wrong” on foreignpolicy.com. Everything you think you know about the collapse of the Soviet Union is wrong, Foreign Policy.
11 11 The next outbreak? We're not ready, Bill Gates – YouTube.
12 12 Camus, A., 1947. The Plague. Librairie Gallimard.
13 13 I should be careful here. The Earth is under threat from rocks in space. While earthlings' primary tactic, if detected in time, is likely to be to try to nudge such an object on to another course using force. Perhaps, however, the response will also involve some attempt at sending people up there to deal with the problem on site. Let us leave all options on the СКАЧАТЬ