Simulation and Wargaming. Группа авторов

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Foreword

       Reiner K. Huber

I was pleased to receive, and gladly accepted, the invitation to contribute the foreword to the timely book “Wargaming and Simulation” dedicated to Stuart Starr. I have known Stuart since the 1970s when we met at many professional and project meetings and discussions on transatlantic defense issues related, among others, to modeling and simulations in the context of assessment studies to support military and political decision‐makers during the Cold War and the decade thereafter. The product of the last project in which both of us participated actively, from 2000 to 2003, was a revised version of the Code of Best Practice for C2 Assessment¹ that NATO had laid out in a technical report in 1999. Considering this report “a framework for thinking about the changing nature of war gaming,” Stuart developed a highly interesting paper on how the sophisticated tools of collaboration technology emerging may revolutionize wargaming.²

Wargaming and simulation accompanied my professional life as a military OR/SA analyst and an academic teacher in one way or another. It began with an episode of what wargamers want from OR models, which are on the heart of simulation. I was a junior OR analyst and captain of the German Air Force (GAF) Reserve when, in the mid‐1960s, I was called up for a wargame by the Air Staff in the Defense Ministry. It was the first time I participated in a two‐sided map display manual wargame for estimating success and losses to be expected in counter‐air operations against well‐defended Warsaw Pact (WP) airbases. Most of the players were fighter bomber pilots, some of them with WW 2 combat experience, and GAF air defense‐officers familiar with the WP’s air defense capabilities. OR analysts of the Air OR Group of IABG³ followed the players’ mission plans calculating the attack aircraft lost and the damage caused to the targets using the respective mathematical models taken from IABG’s air war model.⁴ Never have I forgotten the disputes between players and OR analysts. The blue players considered the target damage calculated as too low and the loss of their air sorties as too high. In the midst of the game they suggested that the analysts manipulate the “critical” inputs of the assessment models so that the outputs would be closer to their judgment. Not surprisingly, the analysts rejected the suggestion arguing that rather than manipulating the game halfway, to improve its results for Blue, it would make more sense to end the game and, thereafter, revisit its data and the assumptions underlying the assessment models. That is what we did.

On the basis of the air war model the Air OR group then developed, together with the military advisory group associated with IABG’s Study Division, an interactive wargame that was successfully tested within a high‐level planning exercise of the GAF in 1970. In 1972 I became head of IABG’s System Studies Division that included OR/SA support for all three service branches of the Bundeswehr. In a discussion with STC’s Andreas Mortensen⁵, about the upcoming issue of modeling in support of overall force capability assessment, we agreed that the most difficult and least documented aspect of military OR/SA seems to be the land war. Thus we felt that a scientific conference on land battle systems modeling would not only contribute to a better understanding of the implications of different modeling approaches, but also help preclude undesirable redundancy through better familiarity with models available elsewhere.

The Special Program Panel of Systems Science of the NATO Scientific Affairs Division⁶ accepted and funded, together with the German Ministry of Defense, my proposal to organize, together with my co‐chairmen, Lynn F. Jones of the UK’s Royal Armaments Research and Development Establishment and Egil Reine of the Norwegian Defence Research Establishment, the scientific conference on “Modeling Land Battle Systems for Military Planning” held at the War Gaming Center of IABG⁷ in Ottobrunn, Germany, 26–30 August 1974. The keynote address of the Deputy Under Secretary of the US Army for Operations Research Dr. Wilbur Payne began with the following statement:

As we are less and less able to rely on historical European combat data and as we see more and more the necessity of evaluating issues in large contexts, gaming and simulation emerge perhaps as the only tools able to organize large quantities of information and discipline our thinking and communication about them.⁸

While not having strong opinions on some methodological aspects of the problem of modeling land battle systems, Dr. Payne expressed strong opinions on certain problems that require more attention than we have given in the past. From the point of view of a senior member of the profession⁹, and a bureaucrat involved in trying to use the results of research to generate defense programs and convince others that the programs are worthy of support, he pointed out some of these problems such as (1) identifying radical changes in the general structures of combat; (2) interactions between weapon system development and tactics development; (3) the issue of “quality versus quantity” in the weapon systems design and selection, and (4) developing estimates of combat losses. He believed that all of these imply basic and extensive improvements in both modeling techniques and how models are used. Thus, he proposed to discuss these key problems “to get a better idea of the direction we should take to improve the ability of our models to handle these four problems.”

In the context of the problems listed by Payne, a constructive assessment technique in form of force on force models would be appropriate such as, for example, changing the structure and tactics of defense forces to improve their deterrent capability. This was exactly the idea of a group of German political scientists and retired military officers who proposed, in the late 1970s and early 1980s, that Germany’s all‐active armored defense forces be supplemented by reactive forces thus improving the chance that an eventual attack by WP forces could be stopped at the demarcation line, between East and West, without NATO having to employ nuclear weapons.¹⁰ The sometimes bitter debates between the retired military members of the group and their active peers in the Ministry of Defense, on the pros and cons of the group’s proposals, were characterized by arguments based mostly on military judgement rather than analysis.

Therefore, together with my colleague Prof. Hans Hofmann of the Institute of Applied Systems and Operations Research (IASFOR) at the Bundeswehr University in Munich¹¹, we initiated a project to take a look at the arguments of both sides on the basis of the outcomes of battle simulations involving 12 reactive defense options of four categories¹² using the Monte Carlo‐type model BASIS. In cooperation with the military authors of the options, this model was developed by Hofmann and his research assistants over a period of three years, accounting, in great detail, all essential interactions affecting the dynamics and outcome of ground battles, for the simulation of battles between battalion‐sized German ground forces defending against a sequence of regimental‐sized Soviet attacking forces supported by organic and higher level fire support on both sides. More than 500 battle simulation experiments were conducted in different type of terrain and visibility to generate sufficient data for a detailed analysis of each of the 12 reactive options.¹³

      The results were discussed at a Workshop with international experts organized by the German Strategy Forum on “Long‐Term Development of NATO’s Forward Defense,” СКАЧАТЬ