Return to Winter. Douglas E. Schoen

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СКАЧАТЬ the United States remains indispensable, even if our conduct in recent years has suggested otherwise. It is our hope that, after reading Return to Winter: Russia, China, and the New Cold War Against America, you will share our view that the United States must reassume world leadership in the face of mounting threats and challenges—both for its own good and for the peace and security of the world.

       INTRODUCTION

       While America Slept

       “That is why the strategic partnership between us is of great importance on both a bilateral and global scale. [Russia-China relations are] the best in their centuries-long history. They are characterized by a high degree of mutual trust, respect for each other’s interests, support in vital issues. They are a true partnership.”

      —VLADIMIR PUTIN¹

      It was a dramatic, even spellbinding, scene. A Russian honor guard stood at attention and martial music played as the jetliner taxied into Moscow’s Vnukovo Airport. As millions of Russians watched live on television or at their computers, seemingly every cameraman and print reporter in the country jostled for position—something like when the Beatles arrived at Idlewild Airport. And then, finally, the sighting: Xi Jinping, China’s new president, touched Russian soil for the first time.

      The hype didn’t end at his arrival. Those millions of Russians continued to watch live as Xi went directly to the Grand Kremlin Palace, where, for the first time in memory, Russian cavalry units greeted a visiting dignitary. They watched as Russian president Vladimir Putin greeted Xi warmly. They watched as Xi’s glamorous wife, a renowned singer and actress, carried herself with poise and elegance. The day played out on television almost like a royal wedding. And in many ways, it was. The pomp reflected reality: China and Russia have increasingly become devoted to each other.

      Like smitten newlyweds, the two leaders even parroted each other’s lines. “China will make developing relations with Russia a priority in its foreign-policy orientation,” Xi said before arriving in Moscow.² Said Putin: “Russian-Chinese relations are a crucial factor of international politics. Our trade is growing, both countries are involved in large humanitarian projects, and all of that serves the interests of the Chinese and Russian people.”³

      “The fact that I will visit Russia, our friendly neighbor, shortly after assuming presidency is a testimony to the great importance China places on its relations with Russia,” Xi told Chinese journalists before departing. “The two sides have had closer strategic coordination on the world stage.”⁴ Putin agreed: “The strategic partnership between us is of great importance on both a bilateral and global scale.” The Russian-Chinese partnership, Putin added, was “characterized by a high degree of mutual trust, respect for each other’s interests, support in vital issues.” It was “a true partnership,”⁵ and Russian-Chinese relations were “the best in their centuries-long history.”⁶ Xi spoke of the two nations as close friends who treat each other with “open souls.”⁷ He even expressed his love of Russian literature and culture.

      What’s happening here? Russia and China, suspicious neighbors for centuries and fellow Communist antagonists during the Cold War, have been drawing closer and closer together because of a confluence of geostrategic, political, and economic interests. The overwhelming evidence suggests that an unprecedented partnership has developed.

      The world is seeing the formalization and strengthening of a historic new alliance—a Russia-China Axis that presents the leading national-security threat to the United States in this young century, against which we seem almost willfully unprepared. Few appreciate the full nature of the threat; far fewer are even aware of it. Some who are, such as journalist Joshua Kurlantzick, see the Russia-China cooperation as part of an adverse trend for democratic governance, which is losing ground around the world to autocracy.⁸ But the significance of the Russia-China Axis is even broader.

      Russia and China now cooperate and coordinate to an unprecedented degree—politically, militarily, economically—and their cooperation, almost without deviation, carries anti-American and anti-Western ramifications. Russia, China, and a constellation of satellite states seek to undermine American power, dislodge America from its leading position in the world, and establish a new, anti-Western global power structure. And both Russia in Eastern and Central Europe and China throughout Asia are becoming increasingly aggressive and assertive, even hegemonic, in the absence of a systematic U.S. response—notwithstanding the Obama administration’s “strategic pivot to Asia.” For now, the most obvious example of American impotence is the Russian repossession of Crimea in March 2014 and the seemingly inexorable preparation for further territorial claims in Ukraine. Here as elsewhere, Russia, with the quiet but clear backing of China, has called America’s—and the West’s—bluff, with little consequence.

      In short, there is a new Cold War in progress, with our old adversaries back in the game, more powerful than they have been for decades, and with America more confused and tentative than it has been since the Carter years.

      Those in the Russia-China Axis now operate against American and Western interests in nearly every conceivable area. Their efforts include the following:

       • Overseeing massive military buildups of conventional and nuclear forces, on which they often collaborate and supply each other, as well as of missile defense—on which they have signed an agreement of partnership

       • Conducting aggressive and often underhanded trade and economic policies—in everything from major gas and oil deals to collaboration with newly developed nations on creating alternative international financial institutions

       • Taking aggressive action to consolidate and expand territorial claims in their spheres of influence, often in violation of UN norms: Russia in Central Asia and its “near abroad”; China, with its belligerence toward various disputed islands in the East and South China Seas and also toward its Asian neighbors

       • Facilitating rogue regimes, both economically and militarily, especially in regard to nuclear weaponry. China has kept the deranged North Korean regime afloat for years with economic aid and enabled Pyongyang’s nuclear pursuits by its refusal to enforce UN sanctions. Russia has bankrolled Iran’s nuclear program and also acted as Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad’s strongest ally, showering his regime with weapons systems, bases, and funding—even as Putin has played a key role in spearheading the diplomatic agreement calling for Assad to turn over his chemical weapons.

       • Using energy resources and other raw materials as weapons in trade wars

       • Acting as the two leading perpetrators of cyber warfare worldwide—activity almost entirely directed against U.S. or Western targets

       • Waging a war of intelligence theft and espionage against the West—an effort that has gone on for years but was epitomized in 2013, when China temporarily sheltered, and then Russia accepted for asylum, American NSA contractor and intelligence leaker Edward Snowden

       • Facilitating, albeit indirectly, terrorist groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah

       • Standing together at the UN, as when the Russians vetoed—and the Chinese abstained from voting on—a Security Council resolution declaring the Crimea referendum invalid⁹

      Indeed, Russia and China exacerbate virtually every threat or problem facing the United States today—from terrorism to the war in Afghanistan to instability in the Western hemisphere and the possibility of a nuclear-armed Iran.

      We СКАЧАТЬ