21st Century Megatrends: Perspectives from a Fox. Clem Sunter

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СКАЧАТЬ probabilities.

      Thus if the animal spirits are dimmed and the spontaneous optimism falters, leaving us to depend on nothing but a mathematical expectation, enterprise will fade and die.’

      Elsewhere he said: ‘Individual initiative will only be adequate when reasonable calculation is supplemented and supported by animal spirits, so that the thought of ultimate loss which often overtakes pioneers, as experience undoubtedly tells us and them, is put aside as a healthy man puts aside the expectation of death.’

      There are two very different groups to whom I would like to read out these quotes. The first is the government here and, in particular, our President as well as the two ministers most closely associated with the development of our economy – Trevor Manuel and Ebrahim Patel. My questions to them would be: ‘Are you taking the advice of Keynes and doing everything to kindle the animal spirits of our present and future entrepreneurs? Is the raising of the next generation of South African industrialists foremost in your mind? What are you doing to create an environment in which these animal spirits are not dimmed by regulation but are allowed to roam free?’

      The second group is across the ocean in America. The foxy methodology is increasingly being used by organisations there wishing to have an intense conversation about adapting their strategy to the extraordinary times we live in. One of the questions I am asked over and over again by institutions like MIT is what kind of mathematical model underpins the way we link the flags to the scenarios so that one can assign accurate probabilities to them. The answer is that we have none and prefer to use instinct and feel. Our probabilities are subjective and therefore open to debate.

      I can now buttress our side of the argument by mentioning not only that the future only happens once, which makes it impossible to quantify the odds precisely on a particular scenario. I can now, in addition, invoke Keynes and his point that most innovative action derives from animal spirits and spontaneous urges rather than rational analysis.

      I can end my address to both groups with the quip that foxes are animals with huge spirits. The best way to handle the future is to behave like one!

      The lesson of Trafalgar

      Nothing beats knowledge of the game when it comes to the selection of leaders in any field. Charisma without knowledge and a sense of morality can be very dangerous. Lord Nelson had all three.

      The reason England beat France and Spain combined at the naval battle of Trafalgar in October 1805 is simple. Lord Nelson and the captains of the fleet he commanded had plenty of years of sea experience under their belts; whereas the French and Spanish top naval officers were chosen from the aristocracy, some of whom had had no time at sea at all. The English commanders were professional: the French and Spanish commanders were amateurs.

      For exactly the same reason, if you look at the managers of virtually any sports team – be it rugby, cricket, soccer, golf, tennis or hockey – they have virtually all played the sport themselves as professionals and understand every aspect of the game. Their knowledge is built up over years of successes and failures and being au fait with all the other players and sides in the game. There no such thing as instant wisdom in sport.

      In business, the identical principle applies. The best CEOs are the ones that have come up through the ranks and know the ins and outs of most of the jobs down the line. They have walked the job for years and have immediate empathy with their employees. They can put themselves into the shoes of their staff and customers and thereby anticipate their needs. Equally, they can think strategically and select the best tactics because the game they are in is in their blood. During their years at work, they will have gained the financial instinct which tells them what are good bets and bad bets in terms of projects and deals.

      In education, the best principals are the ones who have sniffed the chalk on the blackboard and participated in the dynamics of the classroom – in other words they have been teachers themselves. They can tell the difference between a good and bad teacher a mile away. They put their heart and soul into improving the intellectual potential and life skills of the young people under their control.

      With NGOs, the best directors are the ones who are regarded as champions in their field, tirelessly fighting for better conditions for the communities and the individuals they serve. Over time, they have developed close relationships with their major donors such that real trust binds the two parties. Trust never comes overnight. It always takes time.

      The bottom line is that with leadership of any organisation, a primary requisite is professionalism. That can only be gained through experience combined with ethical standards which are never compromised. This would suggest that the leadership of every single parastatal in South Africa, every single municipality, every single hospital, the police, the justice system, the ports and harbours, all other infrastructure and all development agencies should be chosen on one single criterion: a thorough knowledge of the game and excellent performance in it over many years. In most cases, this means promotion from within.

      Parachuting amateurs in for whatever reason – connections, gratitude for other work, nice guys that think in a similar vein – will result in the same thing that happened to the French and Spanish at Trafalgar. Defeat.

      England’s premier asset

      Without Sir Alex Ferguson, the Premier League will never be quite the same again. He was the most successful manager in the history of the Premier League, winning more trophies than anyone else. I will miss him chewing gum on the sideline to keep his emotions under control!

      If it had been the script for a play, it would not have been believed. Manchester United at the final whistle of their game were technically champions, and then Manchester City scored those two goals in injury time to pip them. What a crazy finish to a crazy season. Sergio Aguero’s shot changed the lives of millions of fans around the world in the blink of a second – and his own as well!

      Why is England’s Premier League the number one sporting league in the world with no rival in any other country? Why does it attract the biggest global audience and have the widest geographical footprint? There are eight reasons:

      1 Soccer is the beautiful game. Lovers of other sports hate it but no other game attracts the imagination of the masses like soccer. Every little boy growing up in the back streets of forgotten slums surrounding major cities in England, Europe, Africa and South America dreams of being a soccer star. Moreover, the game in England is more free-flowing and energetic than it is on the continent. The average Premier League player covers 14km in one match.

      2 The Premier League is open to the best players in the world. If there is any example of what a liberal immigration policy can do for a country, it is the fact that the Premier League has probably the best collection of players from all over the world. African stars feature prominently in most of the top teams, including Didier Drogba in mine – Chelsea.

      3 Rich foreigners have provided financial backing to many of the clubs. Americans, Arabs and Russians have put in sufficient cash to lure the talent. A good player gets ± £100 000 per match or ± £3.8m for the season. That is around R50m per annum. The superstars get double that.

      4 Every match is televised. Nothing exhibits the power of television more than the fact that in virtually every restaurant and pub the world over, you can watch the game and analysis from experts.

      5 Each club is heavily branded. You can buy shirts, caps and all the other paraphernalia of any of the clubs. Walk into any mall in South Africa and you will see someone in the colours of one of the Premier League clubs.

      6 Most of the clubs have been around for 120 years or more. This means that the brand СКАЧАТЬ