Next: A Vision of Our Lives in the Future. Marian Salzman

Чтение книги онлайн.

СКАЧАТЬ not so much on the triumphs of the last hundred years as on the promise and uncertainty of the next hundred. If this century saw the global adoption of automobiles and electric lights, men walking on the moon and advances in medicine that have extended average life expectancies into one’s seventies or eighties, what might the next century bring? How will those of us who will be alive in 2050 be living? What will our homes be like? How will we get from one place to another? How will we shop – and what will we be shopping for?

      While literature abounds with long-term prognostications about life next, our view is more pragmatic. Here’s why. International. Global. Worldwide. We’re living in what we used to call ‘the future’. In 1955 Canadian academic Marshall McLuhan on Take Thirty (CBC Television) explained, ‘There are no remote places. Under instant circuitry, nothing is remote in time or in place. It’s now.’ McLuhan is credited with being the first person who genuinely understood that technology was changing and would change mass media, and that mass media and contemporary life are so interconnected that everything would change, fast and hard. Those of us who spent part of the seventies contemplating his work recognize that we are already living in his ‘global village’ and understand how essential it is to decode our present, rather than live life with an eye on the rearview mirror. In the nineties, the present is an enormously important tool for those in the trendtracking business, and especially for those in global marketing communications.

      Why do advertising people care about trends? On a simplistic level, the success of an ad campaign is predicated on whether the marketing message is on trend. It’s often said that advertising is a window on culture. We think that’s true, and that’s why anything that can be used to monitor change and change agents is a fundamental tool for effective marketing communications. So, in our work as advertisers, we appreciate the degree to which accurate trendtracking is critical to the marketing process. Accurately spotting and forecasting trends is of fundamental importance in determining whether an ad is a genuine asset to a brand (ideally by becoming a part of popular culture) or simply a negligible wave over which channel surfers pass.

      Think of trends as human: they have a life cycle. That is, they are sown or fertilized, they gestate, they grow, mature, age and eventually die. Some trends are reincarnated a decade or more later, often in slightly different form.

      How do we track trends? Like other major trendtrackers, our approach is interdisciplinary. We study and analyse traditional and non-traditional media, in both the specialized and popular categories. Because opportunity is missed by those who view the world only through the eyes of their chosen profession, we are confirmed generalists, tracking scores of themes daily. When we get onto something, we turn to the experts – and then consider critically their points of view. Notice how often the so-called experts disagree and restate the obvious to emphasize their particular take on a situation or scenario. Notice, too, that one’s ‘expertness’ is empowering; sometimes predictions can become self-fulfilling as a result of media hype.

      When all is said and done, trendtracking, like communication, is part art, part science. An effective trendtracker must have a talent for the rhetorical, as well as a pragmatic view of the message impact. What will trend X mean for me? For everyone else? As observed by futurist Wendell Bell, ‘The primary goal of futurists is not to predict the future, but to uncover images of possible, probable, and preferable futures that enable people to make informed decisions about their lives.’ Our trendtracking style is about identifying the probable for life and work next – and about proposing conceivable implications if what’s probable happens …

      We view the future through contemporary popular culture, a trait that puts us in good stead when trying to connect with readers outside the advertising community. Advertising is, after all, one of the world’s common cultural touchpoints. From the Pillsbury Dough Boy to the dancing California raisins to the hyperactive Energizer bunny, advertising’s icons are a part of popular culture around the globe. These ‘figures of sale’ and taglines tie us together with consumers in other countries, serving as a common reference for conversation in just about any language.

      The publication of Next is in part the result of our two-year global odyssey. Our unique take on the world now and next is genuinely shaped by Ira and Marian having had the exposure that comes with being two of the privileged few who have jumped from continent to continent absorbing the cultures, media and lifestyles of trendsetters in many, many countries. We hope our zest for what’s different, as well as our respect for culture, pervades all our observations and the implications we propose.

       What to Expect from Next

      For the sake of making Next: A Vision of Lives in the Future an easier read, we have created a few devices to highlight the key themes.

      

‘Big Nexts’ are the megatrends that are so big they transcend place and point of view and touch almost everyone.

      

‘Nexts’ are the key trends that are influencing the influencers – and that will shape life and work next, as we countdown into the next century.

      

‘What’s Nexts?’ are sprinkled throughout this book. It’s a technique which allows thoughtful speculation on probable scenarios – the ultimate product of credible trend analysis.

       Experience Gathering

      This book records the changes we’ve noted in Europe, North America, and elsewhere, and it cites the sources that helped us to identify key shifts and corroborate major patterns of life and work next. Our approach is intended to empower readers to begin the process of interpolating for yourselves the information you consume via traditional news channels and on and off the Internet. By harnessing the power of the information you receive each day, rather than being overwhelmed by it, you will become adequately equipped to manage future change.

       [1] Big Nexts

      As we noted in the introduction this travelogue to the future is not some vision of the ‘brave new world’. Rather, it is a practicum – filled with things that are just on the horizon, trends we are watching move from the periphery to Main Street. Also addressed are the potential commercial implications of those movements. We start with the ‘Big Nexts’: observations about human behaviour and interactions that, in our view, are the overarching factors defining our collective journey to whatever and wherever is next. You will note that many Big Nexts have been expressed as paradoxes. The apparent contradictions suggest that, as part of our future, making things work will require a more expansive world view.

       Big Next: The Ever-more-demanding Consumer

      Imagine you’re sitting at your desk, waiting for an important contract. You check your fax machine, your email, and even for FedEx and courier deliveries. And then you call the person who drew up the contract and he says, ‘Don’t worry, you’ll get it. I dropped it in the mail slot yesterday.’ Fifteen years ago, that response wouldn’t have raised an eyebrow. But who has time today to wait for snail mail? We want everything yesterday, and we grow increasingly frustrated by people who waste our time with antiquated means of communication.

      Well, that’s actually how today’s consumers feel. Having made new technologies a part of our lives, we want everything faster than ever before. Anything that’s not immediate is s-l-o-w. Same-day delivery. Instant news. Nuked meals. DirecTV. СКАЧАТЬ