Demographic Dynamics and Development. Yves Charbit

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      1 1 One of the most comprehensive pioneering studies on demographic transition at the regional level in Europe is that of the team led by Ansley Coale within “The European Fertility Project” at Princeton University (Coale and Cotts Watkins 1986).

      2 2 Notestein explicitly mentions fertility, whereas older texts focus more on birth rates as a component of population growth (Notestein 1945).

      3 3 Chesnais proposed the calculation of a transitional multiplier which depends on the value of death and birth rates, as well as on the length of the transition period (Chesnais 1986a).

      4 4 The United Nations Population Division regularly produces estimates on population and projections for all countries. It is responsible for studies on various essential demographic themes, the methodological revision of projections and demographic monitoring of international policies, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) policy. It is the main source of comparable and high-quality demographic data at the global level (United Nations 2019a). Available at: www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/trends/index.asp [accessed 2 July 2020].

      5 5 Moreover, it has been calculated that two-thirds of population growth until 2050 will be a consequence of world population age structures due to “demographic inertia” (Leridon 2020, p. 4).

      6 6 At the world population level, there is zero net migration. We, therefore, only retain mortality and fertility as factors accounting for population growth.

      7 7 With the exception of: Cambodia, Laos, Pakistan and the Philippines (estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a), which are in group 4.

      8 8 With the exception of: Bolivia, Haiti, Guatemala, Panama and Paraguay (estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a), which are in group 4.

      9 9 With the exception of: Angola, the Republic of the Congo, Ivory Coast, Mauritania, Niger, Somalia, Tanzania and Zambia (estimates and medium-variant) (United Nations 2019a) which are in group 6.

      10 10 Malthus also advocated for this delay in marriage, associated with chastity in celibacy, as a preventive brake on population growth (Malthus 1980).

      11 11 For example, in 1870, England, the most industrialized country in Europe, maintained a high fertility rate, whereas France, which controlled births since 1750 onwards, was much more rural. Another example is that of Sweden and Germany, where universal primary education was completed in 1870, without reducing family offspring (Coale 1973, p. 65).

      12 12 The Human Development Index (HDI) is a multidimensional index, calculated since 1990 by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), based on three components: life expectancy at birth, education index and GDP (income level) per capita (PNUD 1990). Over time, it has been supplemented by other dimensions (indicator adjustments, gender perspective).

      13 13 These are all consensual unions and marriages. As a matter of fact, co-habiting couples have the same reproductive behavior as married couples (Zavala and Paéz 2016).

      14 14 Buenos Aires was considered one of the most modern cities in the world. The first metro in Latin America was built there in 1914 (Rivière d’Arc and Schneier 1993, p. 220).

      15 15 Latin America comprises the member countries of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). In a first definition, comprising 20 countries in total, the former English and Dutch possessions as well as the French departments were excluded. Since 1984, the ECLAC region has included all the countries or territories, whether independent or not (38 countries in 2020).

      16 16 In Latin America, the “lost decade” refers to the years 1980–1990, a period of crisis in the Latin American development model, marked by the weight of foreign debt and structural adjustment programs (CEPALC 2019).

      17 17 They were populated mainly by immigrants of European origin at the end of the 19th century and early 20th century (Cosio Zavala 1998), with relatively low mortality rates upon arrival.

      18 18 All Latin American countries are members of PAHO, and France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands also take part in it. Puerto Rico is an associated member.

      19 19 Non-legal (consensual) unions have always been extremely common in Latin America and the Caribbean, and therefore must be considered in the nuptiality study together with legal marriages. We therefore refer to unions, and not only to marriages, for studying nuptiality (Camisa 1978).

      20 20 Cuba experienced a post-revolutionary baby boom between 1959 and 1970 (Cosio Zavala 1998).

      21 21 It is difficult to know how many legal abortions are practiced in Cuba, because the most common method is aspiration at an early stage of pregnancy, called menstrual regulation, for which there are no statistics.

      22 22 In Table 1.4, the 20 countries are those belonging to the CEPAL in 1984. E0 is the life expectancy at birth (in years, both sexes combined) and TFR is the total fertility rate (number of children per woman). The numbers after the country name represent the E0/TFR between 2015–2020.